BEST of the BETS

Yes, I could look at top trainers and post their records. Like you say, it might not be totally relevant in this situation, for a couple of reasons, one every horse will be returning from a break, two it will be a different time of year from usual.

Any input from anyone on the following or any other factors will be useful. Should we look at records from last 2/3 seasons, last 5 seasons, or much longer? What should we consider as a lay off, 3 month+ break or 6 month+? Also I think it would be best to look at 3-4 year olds separately from older horses, as I think results could be different with younger horses naturally expected to improve?

If we get flat turf racing this Spring/Summer then it might be a bit like the old days where you didnt see good flat horses between November and March, so I would say look at 4-5 months. If a horse has been off for a year then there are likely to be other issues involved. I think we are looking for trainers who can get horses very fit at home and then target a race to win first time out. If you can look at those trainers records for races in early season ie. Mar/Apr/May, then it would also be interesting.

I will do the UK trainers later, but for now here is how the top Irish trainers have done at start of flat season with horses returning from a lay off. Data is for all races in March, April & May over last 5 seasons for horses that were returning after an absence of between 5 to 10 months.

1. Willie McCreery - 73 bets, 12 wins, 17 places, LSP = +20.30, A/E = 1.44
2. Mrs John Harrington - 110 bets, 17 wins, 19 places, LSP = +63.58, A/E = 1.42
3. Joseph O’Brien - 55 bets, 7 wins, 16 places, LSP = +43.00, A/E = 1.06
4. Ger Lyons - 123 bets, 20 wins, 22 places, LSP = +15.11, A/E = 1.04
5. Dermot Weld -138 bets, 37 wins, 30 places, LSP = +24.99, A/E = 0.99
6. Aidan O’Brien - 197 bets, 33 wins, 47 places, LSP = -63.15, A/E = 0.72
7. Jim Bolger - 154 bets, 12 wins, 29 places, LSP = -30.60, A/E = 0.61
8. Johnny Murtagh - 53 bets, 2 wins, 9 places, LSP = -43.40, A/E = 0.39
9. Mick Halford - 74 bets, 3 wins, 15 places, LSP = -64.10, A/E = 0.33

Top 5, especially 2, are worth following. Others should be avoided it seems. If you want to know about any other trainer not in list, let me know.

Nice work AKD. Already paid off if you followed Joseph O'Brien today.

:up:

I've pointed that out about j o Brien in an earlier post he could have a very good year.

Thanks. 15/2 winner for Joseph, and 8/1 winner for Ger Lyons too. There were total of 11 qualifying bets from top 5 trainers, would have returned LSP of +6.5 today.

Cheers AKD and Peregrine

Not sure how relevant it will be this season, and not sure if we would even get any racing in May. But I have looked at the record of top UK trainers in early season on flat with horses returning from a lay off.

The criteria used is same as with the Irish trainers above. These are top 20 trainers in terms of the number of runners they had in early season since 2015. I have arranged them in order of A/E figure with highest at top and lowest at bottom. If you are interested to know about any other trainer not on the list (or want breakdown of a trainer on the list by type of race, age, price etc.), let me know.

1. Mick Easterby - 99 bets, 13 wins, 16 places, LSP = +22.75, A/E = 1.54
2. Sir Michael Stoute - 202 bets, 47 wins, 46 places, LSP = +57.55, A/E = 1.21
3. Mick Channon - 99 bets, 13 wins, 16 places, LSP = -2.00, A/E = 1.07
4. Roger Varian - 180 bets, 46 wins, 38 places, LSP = -15.18, A/E = 1.06
5. Richard Fahey - 342 bets, 49 wins, 63 places, LSP = +3.52, A/E = 1.03
6. Michael Dods - 151 bets, 17 wins, 20 places, LSP = +7.04, A/E = 1.01
7. John Gosden - 171 bets, 48 wins, 46 places, LSP = -4.59, A/E = 0.98
8. Ralph Beckett - 142 bets, 25 wins, 40 places, LSP = -11.95, A/E = 0.97
9. Kevin Ryan - 165 bets, 25 wins, 36 places, LSP = -20.24, A/E = 0.96
10. Andrew Balding - 166 bets, 25 wins, 41 places, LSP = -23.87, A/E = 0.90
11. David Simcock - 108 b, 14 w, 24 p, LSP = -36.95, A/E = 0.90
12. Clive Cox - 121 b, 16 w, 29 p, LSP = -12.68, A/E = 0.89
13. Richard Hannon (Jnr) - 248 b, 29 w, 46 p, LSP = -18.86, A/E = 0.89
14. David O’Meara - 239 b, 29 w, 45 p, LSP = +50.50, A/E = 0.86
15. William Haggas - 145 b, 30 w, 43 p, LSP = -36.18, A/E = 0.84
16. Keith Dalgleish - 105 b, 11 w, 15 p, LSP = -51.91, A/E = 0.83
17. Tim Easterby - 280 b, 17 w, 41 p, LSP = -63.00, A/E = 0.79
18. Charles Hills - 136 b, 11 w, 24 p, LSP = -76.01, A/E = 0.66
19. Mark Johnston - 151 b, 15 w, 32 p, LSP = -90.22, A/E = 0.65
20. Karl Burke - 103 b, 6 w, 15 p, LSP = -74.36, A/E = 0.49

Note - if anyone doesn’t know what A/E is and why it is considered a better indicator than LSP, I will try and explain it below. But first, in above list you might have noticed that Roger Varian has a negative LSP despite having a high A/E, and David O’Meara has a big positive LSP but a relatively low A/E. Reason for this is the difference in price of their winners - all of Varian’s winners have been under 10/1 and if you only backed his runners in this price range you would make a good profit. In contrast, O’Meara has not done very well with his shorter priced runners but his LSP is boosted by some big priced winners at prices of up to 50/1.

Now for those interested, A/E stands for Actual vs Expected, it’s the ratio between actual number of winners and expected number of winners. I will try to explain it with an example. Let’s say you have 10 bets on horses at following prices, in brackets I have included the probability of horse winning based on its price. Let’s say the prices are Evens (0.5), 2/1 (0.33), 5/2 (0.29), 4/1 (0.2), 6/1 (0.14), 9/1 (0.1), 12/1 (0.08), 25/1 (0.04), 50/1 (0.02), 100/1 (0.01). Total of these probabilities add up to 1.71, which means if you had these 10 bets at these prices you will on average be expected to have 1.71 winners. Now let’s look at couple of scenarios. In one instance you have two winners from above at say prices of 2/1 & 4/1, your LSP will be -2.00 but as you had more winners than expected your A/E will be 2 divided by 1.71 = 1.17. In another instance, let’s say you only have one winner from above 10 bets but it is the 50/1 shot that wins, your LSP will be +41 but as number of winners was less than expected A/E ratio will be 1 divided by 1.71 = 0.58. Whether LSP is better indicator or A/E can be debated. If you are someone who always stakes exactly same irrespective of the price of your selection then you should follow LSP, but most people stake proportionately so they would stake a bigger amount on their shorter priced selections than they would on a bigger priced one, I don’t know many people that would stake same amount on a 50/1 shot as they would on a 2/1 shot, that’s why A/E is considered a better indicator by most.

Good trainers to follow when their horses return from 100+ days break.
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/hugh-taylor