BEST of the BETS

Very tricky looking race, it’s hard to even know which one will go off favourite. I was going to leave it alone but my one has drifted to a big enough price for me to have a very small interest. I have gone with one of the newcomers THEBIAN (4/1), a £230,000 purchase, his dam was unraced, grand dam Briolette was Group 3 placed and half sister to one of the best middle distance horses Pilsudski. Gosden is 6 from 28 with newcomers here (6 from 19 when first 3 in betting), he also runs the current favourite Reehaam who ran ok to finish 4th (beaten 9 lengths) on debut at Ascot in July, a few winners have come out of that race and she should run well but form doesn’t stand out that much and she may need to improve especially as she is now racing against colts. Interesting Irish runner too, but Joseph O’Brien’s record when sending horses to UK is not that great, here at Chelmsford he has sent 4 before, priced 9/2, 10/3, 11/4, 15/8, only one of the 4 managed to place, but it maybe worth noting that this is the first time he is sending over a newcomer. Big negative for my selection is the wide draw.

A couple of others that I think maybe overpriced, San Rafael (12/1) for Mark Johnston, and Cedar Cage (33/1) for Mark Prescott. Both ran in the Wolverhampton race two weeks ago, finishing 4th & 5th. First 3 in that race had run total of 4 times before and placed all 4 times so that gives a solid look to the form. San Rafael, carrying a 7 lbs penalty (which he has to carry again today) was beaten 2 lengths, another length and quarter behind him was Cedar Cage (50/1) on debut. Prescott runners this time of year improve a fair bit on their 2nd start and if this turns out to be a weak race as I think it is then he is not out of it either. But like my selection, both these are drawn out wide too.

As I said at start, it’s a tricky race so best to keep stakes small. Small win on Thebian and putting in the two big priced ones in combination forecasts for a bit of fun.

Good luck.