Only 6 runners but interesting race as it features at least a couple of progressive horses. Buckman Tavern and MONDAIN (13/8) are both 4 lbs well in, and I think one of them should be able to take advantage of it. BT was unlucky last time over c&d in a stronger race last time and can run off the same mark as he is turned out quickly. By comparison, Mondain didn’t have much to beat last time but he could not have done it any easier, winning by 10 lengths eased down. Selection has had a very busy campaign, as a lot of Johnston’s horses do, having his 5th run of the month but he has continued to improve and this son of Manduro’s half sister may still have a bit more to come. He was also entered in the 2:25 race at Goodwood today (in which Johnston has 3 runners that maybe worth considering), but he didn’t make the cut and goes for this easier race. In Buckman Tavern’s favour, Prescott has a very good record in this race with 3 wins and a 3rd of 9 from just 4 runners, he hasn’t had a runner in this race since 2013 though. And the race that he finished 2nd in last time, out of Prescott’s previous 2 that placed in that race 1 went on to win his next two races and other one won his next 4 races so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him, I think they are both good horses but I prefer mine as he has winning form this season albeit at a lower level and he is also slightly better price @ 13/8 compared to 11/8 for BT. Young Merlin could run better than his price of 25/1, backing him in extra places market was one alternative, as he is 16 lbs better off with Mondain for finishing less than a length behind him at Lingfield last month but Mondain has improved a lot since then and also this race doesn’t usually go to outsiders, last 8 runnings have been won by favourite or 2nd favourite and biggest priced winner has been 6/1.
Win bet on Mondain @ 13/8
Sorry for the short price as not everyone likes backing short prices and for good reason, and this is by no means a certainty but I think it’s an interesting race to watch even if not betting and I thought I will post my opinion on it.
Poor poor show from Mondain. Really kicking myself for letting 25/1 winner go, as mentioned I expected it to run better than the price but sometimes you end up looking too much into stats and that’s what I did and decided that it won’t be won by a big price because of past trends.