BEST of the BETS

This race regularly has future Group race performers in there and sometimes even a Group 1 horse, so a race worth following. First I want to look at couple of trainers who regularly run some of their best horses in this race. Hannons have had 22 runners in this race, these are the highest ratings they went on to achieve at some stage in their career, one 120+, two 110-119, three 100-109, four 90-99, six 80-89, six below 80. That’s nearly half their runners in this have been 90+ horses which is pretty useful, but they have won the race only twice with Toronado (twice a Group 1 winner) & Estidhkaar (twice Group 2 winner), most others were unplaced. That shows the trainer doesn’t target the race and his runners are usually given more time, the two winners were high class and won simply because of raw ability. He runs King’s View today, so the question is he Group 1/2 class? betting suggests not because if he was then the word would have got out and he would be much shorter in betting like those two winners. Other trainer who regularly runs one of his best in this Brian Meehan, and he is a bit harder to predict than Hannons but his runners also tend to need the run and are more likely to place than win first time, he has had 13 runners in this, 2 rated 110+, three 100-109, one 90-99, three 80-89, so again pretty similar to Hannon. Meehan has won the race only once but had 4 others placed. In contrast to these two you have someone like Mark Johnston, who may not have the same quality but is likely to have his runner readier first time, Johnston has had two runners in this before, one turned out to be 80s horse and the other one 90s, 80s Horse was unplaced in this but 90s one won, so it’s not a surprise to see his runner Gold Souk (3/1) so short in betting, but he is too short for a race like this so I am not backing him.

Sorry for the long post, but it is to look at the race as reference to future prospects of runners and not just who might win today, so from above it would be worth keeping an eye on Hannon’s and Meehan’s runners for future even if they don’t run well today. So who am I backing today, from the three bigger priced newcomers I considered seriously, I have gone with ROCKET DANCER (12/1), Sylvester Kirk may not have as good a record with debut runners as some other trainers in the race but he does get some winners from June onwards, his previous two runners in this race were both well beaten but they were both 100/1 and poor, but unlike those two this one is owned by Jeff Smith so likely to be much better. Pedigree is really nice, his sire Toronado (mentioned above) won this same race on his debut, and his dam Opera Dancer (also trained by Kirk) was placed 3rd (33/1) on her 2nd start at this course. Most of the family has been with Kirk, best of them Opera Cape (dam’s half brother) who placed on debut and went on to place in two Group 1s (Grand Criterium & Dewhurst) at 2 before being sold to Godolphin. Has plenty of stamina in pedigree which would be help on today’s going. Another one who has even more stamina in pedigree is Glorious Return, Jonathan Portman can get them ready first time, his two previous runners went on to be rated in 80s, this one probably similar so shouldn’t be good enough to win but softer the going more it will help his chance because of staying pedigree. Eve Johnson Houghton can also get winners on debut and Bealach also has to be considered.

Bet - small each way on Rocket Dancer @ 12/1

Good luck.