BEST of the BETS

Looks a tricky day, only a couple of fancies.

Nap

2:15 Exeter - my selection in race is SMARTY WILD, price has shortened overnight from 11/8 to evens which is opposite of what I was hoping as he has drifted on all 4 career starts so far but the drift from 12/1 to 20/1 last time didn’t stop him from winning. Market as it is now does make some of the others value alternatives but I think this is still the most likely winner. Selection beat the penalised Chambard (rated 125) by three quarters of a length last time, so his opening mark of 120 looks about right on that evidence, but having had just two runs over hurdles he has potential for improvement. His dam Blaeberry was a good hurdler, rated in 130s and placed at up to Listed level, and she also won at this track so pedigree is a positive. If he fails today, then the race looks quite open. Grace Harris runs two, Field Exhibition & Karakoram, FE won a 3 runner race over 3 miles at Musselburgh by 11 lengths last time, it was the first time she had won going right handed from 25 attempts, she has better record on left handed tracks, she finished 6th of 15 (beaten 9 lengths) over this c&d 5 months ago and that was from a 21 lbs lower mark than today, having said that her new trainer seems to have got a lot of improvement from her but how much more improvement a 9 year old can have? Her other runner Karakoram was poor on the flat but his 4 hurdle runs since joining her have shown enough to suggest he will be win races now handicapping and booking of one of top conditionals Rex Dingle is a positive, negative about him is that he is only 4 and it’s not easy for 4 year olds against older horses this time of year even with the weight allowance, but at current price of 9/1 he looks a value alternative so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. Midnight Midge has been running ok, including here over further, but all those runs were in weaker races than this so he needs to find improvement from somewhere. Mere Anarchy isn’t completely ruled out either though he hasn’t won a hurdle race for nearly 3 years. So lots of possibles, but Smarty Wild has a good chance even without further improvement. Win bet on Smarty Wild @ Evens

Long shot

3:00 Newcastle - NORTHANDSOUTH showed nothing last time on first run for his new trainer Sara Ender, but booking of Nathan Moscrop (who has ridden all 5 of her winners, including 33/1 & 16/1) suggests that he may do a little bit better today. Drop back in distance should suit as all his wins have come around 2 miles, and he is now only 3 lbs higher than his last hurdles win which came just over a year ago. This is a competitive race though so I am not expecting him to win or even place (will probably need to drop to class 5 or a weak class 4 to win), but hopefully he will run well enough to finish in first half of field. Small each way extra places bet @ 25/1 (6 places, Bet365).

Good luck