BEST of the BETS

My thoughts on few of the races today

Nap

4:50 Fakenham - quite a tricky novice hurdle, Nicky Henderson’s pair need to improve, and there is very little between Chambard and NIBLAWI at the weights, latter comes out just 1 lb ahead. Another thing with Chambard is he is stepping up in distance, he has a good chance if he stays but that isn’t certain. Negative for Niblawi is that he hasn’t run for over a year and he will likely need the run but Neil Mulholland is in such good form (5 wins from 14 at +16 LSP in last week) that I am prepared to overlook that. Niblawi was rated in 90s on flat, and his 3 runs over hurdles all give him a good chance, beaten 6 lengths by a horse now rated 129, beaten 10 lengths by one now rated 133 and last time 4 lengths behind Jersey Bean (now rated 142), form of all 3 runs suggests he can be a bit better than his 120 rating, year long absence is the only negative. Win bet on Niblawi @ 7/5 (note Chambard is now a non runner)

Others

2:50 Southwell - very open novice handicap, and there are at least 4 that I can make a good case for. Mr Love is returning from an absence but has had a wind operation and he doesn’t need to improve a lot anyway, Scartare 0-18 but is fairly consistent at this level and could improve on 2nd chase start, couple of horses that have had 3 runs in maiden hurdles and now put in a handicap chase, both wearing first time cheekpieces, Mayo Hill for Nigel Twiston-Davies who does well with this type, but so does Jack Barber who runs THREE IN ONE, and TIO looks better treated running off a lowly mark of 85, so that is my selection in a very open race. Small each way on Three In One @ 10/1 (4 places with Betfair)

4:15 Fakenham - I am split between LITTLE JIMMY and Holy Street here, Little Jimmy is the only one of these to have won a race (he has won 8 of them) and has run well here before, problem is he is 12 years old now, but ran ok on seasonal reappearance here in December when beaten 16 lengths from 8 lbs higher mark. That was over 2m1f though and he has never won beyond 2 and half miles so that’s another little negative, but with likely lack of pace in race he may get away with it. I see Holy Street as a danger even though he was beaten 145 lengths 10 days ago, but he has had only 1 run over fences (finished 2nd of 4) and application of first time visor could see him run much better than last time. Small each way bet on Little Jimmy @ 14/1

4:40 Leopardstown - Mad Carew was 50/1 when beaten 104 lengths last time, he is only 11/2 today so maybe better is expected but still it’s a poor price when you consider that Robbies Magic was only 6 lengths behind him and is 66/1, RM also wears first time hood which could see him improve. MOSSY WHITE did nothing special in 3 maiden hurdles but is likely to do a bit better now chasing, and his trainer does well in these type of races, he is my selection in extra places market. The winner will most likely come from first two in betting, but my idea was to look for something at a big price to finish in first five as this isn’t a strong race, choice was between Robbies Magic and Mossy White, hopefully I have chosen the right one. Small each way extra places on Mossy White @ 28/1 (5 places).

Good luck.