• AKD
    492
    Just an experiment with trading in running. I will be looking to trade these out in running for a profit.

    First one in 1:40 Sedgefield

    Sory - I have backed this @ 22.0, will trade out if it hits 11.0. Still a maiden after 18 runs but hasn’t run too badly here in past, including a 6 lengths 2nd from 4 lbs higher over this distance. Was backed from 25/1 into 12/1 last week over couple of furlongs further, was well beaten 4th of 8 (hit a low of 9.2 in running) but this shorter trip may suit.
  • brian1147
    192
    A site you might find helpfull.

    https://www.winningwarlock.com
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian. I will take a look at it. Sory hit the required priced in running, but I still have a lot to learn about what kind of price you should aim for.
  • AKD
    492
    2:10 - Wee Tiger Tots backed @ 22.0, aiming for 50% profit in running.
  • brian1147
    192
    i'm not what you might call a seasoned trader, but when i started i went for 25%
    reduction. even now i'm not near 50%
    this arb calc may be useful.

    http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian, that’s very helpful. Not looking good for my selection in this race as price has gone to 42.0, good thing I am only playing around with small stakes.
  • micky
    33
    Unless you are at the track, you do realise that there are major players who'll try to suck you in, picture delays have been discussed on here in other interesting articles.
  • AKD
    492
    That was a hopeless selection, maybe not a good idea to be playing with big priced runners in non handicaps.
  • AKD
    492
    Yes, Micky, I realise that but I think this is different. I am not making the decision to back or lay in running, so delayed pictures don’t affect what I am doing. I am setting up the trade before the race starts, what led me to do this is that a lot of my horses were running well without winning so I thought it might be a idea to set the trade to ensure I make a profit if my runners hit a shorter price in running.
  • AKD
    492
    Tried Manwell in 2:40 race, backed at 3.5, aiming for 40% this time so need it to hit 2.5 in running.
  • micky
    33
    Good luck AKD, I see your method. Just careful to not wipe all your profits out in a hit. We had, over 30 years ago a horse laid out, contact at stable labelled it as "today". Trainer was in on it too, if that's a clue... 33/1 all prices down to 5/2 board, and this is before technology, so we are talking about bookies who took bets. I can't reveal more, other than to say said trainer was paid off enough to set up in another country and we were taken to the cleaners. He still has protection.
  • AKD
    492
    Very interesting. Thanks, Micky.
  • AKD
    492
    Another thing with these horses I am selecting today, is that I would have been backing them if I wasn’t doing this experiment. I am just trying to see what works better.
  • AKD
    492
    That one went much better, could have easily aimed for a bigger profit but happy with that.
  • AKD
    492
    Last one for today, Late Date backed @ 8.2 in 3:40 race, aiming for about 33% profit so it needs to hit 6.2.
  • AKD
    492
    Matched almost before the start, and soon after the start. If every trade could go as well as this.
  • AKD
    492
    Unplaced. So this trading experiment went well compared to backing them, for today at least. 3 successful trades out of 4 for about half point profit on day. If I had backed them, I would have made a loss of 2 points as I would have only collected on first one that placed at 16/1. I need to work on how much profit to aim, might try again tomorrow.
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