BEST of the BETS

Apologies for the long winded post!
Hoping I’ve found a little value today in A LITTLE CHAOS at 6/1 in the 2:33 at Fakenham.

Bottom weight here and getting nearly a stone from Alan King’s 9/4 favourite Midnight Gift.

Racing Post says “Winner of two novice hurdles but has struggled in both handicaps some 573 days apart” but I would like to scrutinise this comment.

Won a couple of decent looking novice hurdles Dec 18 (Over todays C&D) and March 19 (with Queens’ Magic currently rated 130, back in 3rd getting 6lbs from the selection)

The first handicap ALC “struggled in” was actually a Grade 2 affair at Newbury where the RP says “Tracked leader, ridden after 3 out, weakened next (jockey said mare was never travelling) (tchd 40/1)” noted the jockey said the mare was never travelling.
The second handicap ALC “struggled in” was here at Fakenham over 4 furlongs further than today and off the back of a 573 DAY BREAK!! Again RP notes say “Chased leader, led after 3 out, ridden and headed before 2 out, soon outpaced, well held and lost second approaching last, weakened last (op 12/1 tchd 14/1)”. Not that bad when considering that she’s running over half a mile less today!

Interestingly 9 lengths behind her in that race a month ago was Break The Rules (who was receiving nearly a stone from her). This one was beaten a short head by today’s favourite Midnight’s Gift in her own C&D win in a Juvenile Hurdle a year ago. Doubtless Midnight’s Gift has progressed since then, but she is yet to win a handicap herself, either on the flat or the hurdles. However she is rated 12lbs higher than A LITTLE CHAOS.
Getariver is the 5/2 2nd fav, and is very lightly raced for a 7 year old, so quite hard to judge.

Overall though I would anticipate that A LITTLE CHAOS could be quite well ahead of her mark here, and have a bit more in hand than the top two in the betting.

Now for the statty bit……
Trainer Stuart Edmunds has had a couple of winners and a couple of 2nds from his 11 runners in the past fortnights, which would indicate some semblance of form within the stable.
He has an excellent record in hurdle races at the course 7/18 all time (39% win rate!)
Tom O’Brien (jockey today) has a good record riding for the stable 6/28 (21% win rate), with a further 9 2nd places thrown in there!

May well blow up in my face, but at 6/1, I think this mare is a cracking price and is my biggest fancy for quite some time. I will be watching the price closely as this stable seem to like a nibble!