BEST of the BETS

Just the one bet today, and despite a small field it’s quite a tricky race. And the weather makes things trickier. Going has changed to Good from Good to soft after a dry day yesterday and overnight, but there is possibility of rain today so not sure what we will get.

Although my selection PARODY is yet to race on softer than good, I don’t think it will bother her too much if it gets softer, her half-brother won on soft and heavy and there are other soft going winners in family. Her last run was a little bit disappointing as she was only 4th here. It was a stronger race than this though so should finish closer today at least.

6 lengths ahead of her in 3rd was Midnight Sapphire, the course specialist who has got all 4 of her career wins here. It’s nearly 4 years since last of those wins though, finished 2nd 5 times from 11 runs since that win. I would have considered betting on her for a place but with 7 runners even that looks risky. So although weight terms are same as last time, I feel my one has the potential to improve past her.

I wouldn’t have touched France De Reve at 6/4 last night, but now the price of 7/2 is interesting. Maybe the going change has something to do with the drift as her French pedigree suggests she will want it much softer. But she is also taking a big step up in distance on her handicap debut and I have trouble guessing what JP McManus horses are going to do, so I wouldn’t rule her out.

Floral Bouquet is interesting, and I might have a saver on her if the going stays genuinely good. Although both her wins in novice hurdles 2 years ago were in soft, in recent times she has struggled on softer going. She was well backed last time and only got caught late by another one that was gambled, with the pair few lengths clear of the rest.

Today the gamble seems to be on Grageelagh Girl, she has a chance but not for me at that price. She has quite a similar profile to Floral Bouquet, in that both of them haven’t won since winning novice hurdles 2 years ago and now look attractively handicapped. If I had to choose between them then I have to go for the bigger price.

So not too confident in my selection despite the shortish price as I think she needs to improve on her last run, but have done a little win bet on Parody @ 5/2, she is unlikely to inconvenienced by any further changes in going and still has potential to improve. Can’t rule out France De Reve because of her connections, and Floral Bouquet is another possible if ground stays good.

Good luck.