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12:00 Bangor - Isaac Wonder ought to win this from a rating of 120, but he is very short at 2/5. I am looking to see if there is any value against him, and there are a couple that I think could possibly run well. Lady Reset had similar ability to the favourite on the flat, only 4th of 11 on hurdles debut though so needs to improve but could do so, wears a tongue tie for first time. Other one is Aire Valley Lad, he was a rare bumper winner on debut for Sue Smith, the last one she won with on debut was Midnight Shadow, I am not suggesting this one is going to turn out as good as that horse but just think he will be able to win some races over hurdles. He won only narrowly from a horse that has finished 2nd in all 3 of his starts, with 8 lengths back to 3rd. Well beaten on hurdling debut last month though so needs to improve quite a lot.
As I say favourite should win if he runs to his rating, but if he doesn’t then I think my two have a chance. Small each ways on Lady Reset (11/2) and Aire Valley Lad (14/1).
Might have couple more bets later, but will see how these go first.
Favourite was poor, but so were my two finishing only 5th & 6th, might have to wait for handicaps with AVL.
One more bet. I was considering having a good bet on this but not feeling confident with the way my luck is, so had a smaller bet and forecast. WITH THANKS in the 5:30 at Thirsk, she made a winning debut over 7 furlongs at Newmarket last November, race was split into two divisions and the winning time of her division was 1.41 secs quicker than other division. William Haggas debuted 5 runners across two divisions, Ice Sprite who was 7 lengths behind selection has won a handicap off 70, First Kingdom who was 12 lengths behind has won his next two in a maiden and novice under a penalty. Two that ran in other division, 2nd has placed in handicaps at Royal Ascot and Newmarket from marks in 80s, and 7th has also won a novice. The 2nd horse from selection’s race Waliyak has finished 2nd in Sandringham at Royal Ascot and at Goodwood earlier today from marks in mid 80s. All this suggests to me that is pretty strong form and should see selection run to a mark in mid to high 80s which should be enough to win this race even with her penalty.
One possible doubt would be about the drop to 6 furlongs as she won that race over 7 on heavy going. But other than that this doesn’t look the strongest race. Michael Dods has 4 of the 9 runners in this race, but although he has a very good record in handicaps at Thirsk, his record in maidens and novices here is quite poor, only 1 win from 47 in novices (20 of them priced under 10/1). Karl Burke has ok record in novices here and his horse has been backed into 9/4, he has fair form and with a rating of 72 he has place chances but can not be expected to make huge improvement so doesn’t look good value to me at that price. Haggas is 5 wins (and 6 2nds) from 16 in novices at Thirsk, including 5 from last 9. Main danger to me looks to be his other runner Avebury, who makes her debut in Cheveley Park Stud colours.
So it’s a single bet on With Thanks and reverse forecast with Avebury. I haven’t had much luck last few times I have backed a short price, so be careful if following.
Can’t win backing short prices even if they look good, but I don’t learn. Could have been worse I guess, could have had a big bet on it.
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