BEST of the BETS

First a few trends about the race, but long standing trends do get broken as we saw in one of the races last week so use them with caution. Willie Mullins has won this race for last 3 years, but none of those wins were with his 1st string, he runs 5 today headed by Sharjah, 4 times Grade 1 winner including the Galway Hurdle here. He should be thereabouts but I don’t want to back at a short price in a competitive race like this. Only 1 favourite (in 2014) has managed to win this in last 25 years. There have been no huge shocks in the race though, no horse priced bigger than 16/1 has won since 2001, so most of the winners have tended to come from first 6 in betting. Another important stat has been the performance of 4 and 5 year olds, in last 15 years they have made up 45% of total runners and won 12 of the 15 runnings, with only 3 wins for older horses despite making up 55% of the field. Backing every 4 and 5 year old over last 15 years shows a small profit at level stakes, and it becomes a huge 68 point profit if only horses priced up to 16/1 were backed. And no horse rated higher than 85 has won this in last 10 years.

On to today’s race and I have done a small each way bet on one at a big price, so again not expecting anything, will just be happy if it places. DALILEO (33/1) finished 2 1/2 length 3rd behind Run For Mary over this distance at Bellewstown 3 weeks ago. He is 3 lbs better off today, which puts two of them very close yet there is a big difference in prices as Run For Mary is as short as 6/1. He was a bit disappointing next time over mile and half at the Curragh, and has a little bit to find on that form with the impressive winner Princess Zoe and also Takarengo, both of whom are much shorter prices. But it’s not a huge amount , and return to this longer trip could see him run better. Johnny Murtagh has previously had two runners in this race, they finished 7th (20/1) & 6th (10/), a similar run from this one should mean he is not too far away.

Princess Zoe was very impressive last time and she has a good chance if she stays the longer trip as expected, but at 7/2 is a short enough price now. Grandmaster Flash is another possible along with Kings Vow and the favourite Sharjah in a very competitive race.

Each way bet on Dalileo @ 33/1 (6 places Paddy Power, most others offering 5 places)

Good luck.