UK racing to resume on or before 1st June
Price for Yes was shortening last week and went as short as 1.25 (1/4) at one point but has been on the drift since Monday and is 1.66 (about 4/6) now.
Price for Royal Ascot to go ahead on 16th June also shortened last week and went as low as 2.00 (evens) but since Monday has drifted back out to 2.50 (6/4).
I wouldn’t really make comparisons with Germany. I am not going into possible reasons, but they seem to have managed it better than most European countries and number of new daily cases there have dropped sufficiently to say that they are past the peak. Number of new cases in France are also much lower than UK. UK is still having around 4000 new daily cases, I think these will need to drop to around 2000 for government to ease lockdown restrictions. If any country we can make a comparison with it is Italy, as we have followed a similar trajectory and have been consistently about two weeks behind them. It has taken Italy 16 days to come from 4000 daily cases to around 2000 currently, and they will start easing lockdown restrictions from next Monday. So if UK follows the same path then it could be another 3 weeks before lockdown restrictions are eased here.
Based on that, my opinion is that the earliest racing could resume in UK would be last week of May, but it could be first or second week of June depending on how things go so I am not betting on this.
Two blockbuster weekends of action to end the month could be in store for racing under tentative proposals put forward by the BHA as part of resumption planning.
The "best-case scenario" plans, developed by a sub-group of the Flat Pattern Committee, involve the running of several high-profile stakes races in the lead-up to the first Classics of the season, the Qipco 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas, on the first weekend in June.
The release of the potential schedule comes on the same day the BHA's chief medical adviser Dr Jerry Hill and his counterparts from other leading sports met government officials to discuss how action could safely return when receiving appropriate approval from ministers.
Should racing be cleared to resume by the middle of the month, a number of the races deemed most important will take place on the weekend of May 23-24 and May 30-31 and most likely be restricted to domestic runners only.
The first weekend will feature salvaged contests including the Craven Stakes, Nell Gwyn, Brigadier Gerard and Sagaro Stakes, with the likes of the Lockinge, Yorkshire Cup, Dante and Middleton Stakes taking place the following weekend.
Provisional plan for the last two weekends in May
Weekend 1 – May 23-24
Pavilion (6f, 3yo, Group 3)
Nell Gwyn (7f, 3yo, f, Group 3)
Craven (1m, 3yo, c&g, Group 3)
Greenham (7f, 3yo, c&g, Group 3)
Fred Darling (1m, 3yo, f, Group 3)
Brigadier Gerard (1m2f, 4+, Group 3)
Conqueror (1m, 4+, f, Listed)
Pinnacle (1m4f, 4+, f, Group 3)
Sagaro (2m, 4+, Group 3)
Aston Park (1m4f, 4+, Group 3)
Paradise Stakes (1m, 4+, Listed)
Weekend 2 – May 30-31
Lockinge (1m, 4+, Group 1)
Palace House (5½f, 3+, Group 3)
Yorkshire Cup (1m6f, 4+, Group 2)
Dante (1m2f, 3yo, Group 2)
Musidora (1m2f, 3yo, f, Group 3)
Cecil Frail (6f, 3+, f, Listed)
Spring Trophy (7f, 3+, Group 3)
Middleton (1m2f, 4+, f Group 2)
Provisional plan for the first weekend of June
2,000 Guineas (1m, 3yo, c&f, Group 1)
1,000 Guineas (1m, 3yo, f, Group 1)
Coronation Cup (1m4f, 4+, Group 1)
Pretty Polly (1m2f, 3yo, f, Listed)
Newmarket Stakes (1m2f, 3yo, c&g, Listed)
Bronte Cup (1m6f, 4+, f, Group 3)
In an update to stakeholders, the BHA said: "Under our best-case scenario planning, and subject to advice from public health authorities, the aim is to rescue a number of lost events from the early part of the spring and stage them during the second half of May and early June, if possible.
"It is possible that the races may not be staged at their traditional venues and may need to be hosted at alternative racecourses. Again, this is dependent on wider circumstances, the available fixtures and the public health guidance in place at the time.
"It is also likely that racing will be restricted to domestic runners only, initially at least until May 30, in line with a similar approach taken by other international racing jurisdictions.
"We must emphasise that this provisional plan is based on our best-case scenario and may need to be adjusted according to when and under what circumstances racing is safely able to recommence."