BEST of the BETS

Trying same bet as yesterday, hopefully with similar or better results although it looks slightly harder today.

4:55 Dundalk - really poor nursery, these between them have had 64 runs, 0 wins and only 6 places. Only 5 of these have run on the surface before, 3 of them met in another nursery here 2 weeks ago and it’s one of these I am backing. TINKERBELLS EFFECT (4/1) was beaten 6 lengths in 4th, 2 lengths behind Miss Sassyboots (3rd) and 2 lengths ahead of Sebs Star (10th), but that clearly looked a better race than this so I think she can improve her placing. She is 2 lbs better off with MS, and I think young Mikey Sheehy is good value for his 7 lbs claim. Jockey has ridden 5 winners from 64, no winners yet for Joseph O’Brien but 8 places from 18 for him, which is good going considering average price of his rides has been 8/1. One negative is the wide draw, but hopefully she can overcome it and run well. On that form, you also have to consider Sebs Star as he is on favourable terms and also has better draw, inexperienced jockey (having only his 2nd ride) and a feeling that he may be better over 5 furlongs has stopped me backing it but there are worse 50/1 shots.

Another one that I think could run well is the handicap debutant LADY ZELL (10/1), beaten a total of 30 lengths in her 3 runs so far, middle one of those runs at Naas is particularly interesting, she was beaten 12 lengths but all the runners to have run from that race have performed well in big races - winner beaten a neck in Group 3, 2nd beaten 2 lengths in Group 2, 3rd beaten under a length in Listed, 5th beaten under a length in Group 3, 7th beaten less than a length in big sales race at Curragh, 8th beaten 2 lengths in Birdcatcher nursery. She is returning from a 3 month break and in first time tongue tie, but that form makes her opening mark of 62 looks good.

I have done a small win bet on Tinkerbells Effect (also in e/w yankee) and each way single on Lady Zell, and a reverse forecast just in case.

Others I have included in yankee

2:00 Hexham - KILTEALY BRIGGS (8/13), too short a price to back as a single but has to be included in multiple, narrowly beaten by Dolphin Square in hurdling debut, unlikely there is anything of similar ability in here. Jamie Snowden’s short priced runners can usually be backed with confidence, in last 2 years he had 51 runners start at 6/4 or shorter, 37 (73%) of these won for LSP of +19. Another trainer whose short priced runners have to be noted is Kim Bailey, but Snowden is the tops when it comes to shorties.

5:25 Dundalk - another poor race from Dundalk, this time a maiden, favourite won’t need to improve much from his debut 3rd but he is odds on now, ABANICA (5/1) has had plenty of experience, including in handicaps, but I think she should run well and get a place at least. Her last run was disappointing but earlier form is not bad in context of this race.

7:40 Kempton - GUROOR’s (3/1) recent good form has been in weak races, but she did win emphatically last time under this jockey. Raised 7 lbs but she could still have improvement to come and I think she will go close, this is undoubtedly a tougher race though with several dangers.

Good luck.