BEST of the BETS

Sticky Situation finished 8 lengths 2nd in this race last year when rated 98, he is now rated 107 so has clearly improved, that improvement is also confirmed by the fact that he finished 10 lengths 2nd in Listowel maiden in June having finished 6th (beaten 17 lengths) in that same race last year, this all points to him going very close today but I still don’t feel comfortable backing a horse that has had 10 chances in maidens now and keeps finding one or two too good, so I am looking for one that can improve past him. WHENURGOODURGOOD (5/2) made a good start to hurdling when splitting 112 & 111 rated horses to finish 2nd at Bellewstown last time, he was getting 8 lbs from the winner and 3rd so his performance can be rated around 103-104 which doesn’t leave him with much improvement to find to match Sticky Situation. Pedigree suggests this step up in trip is in his favour and could see him improve. Only thing that tempers confidence is the trainer has never had a hurdles winner, he is 0 from 43 over hurdles, and whether that last run wasn’t a fluke. Baboin finished 30 lengths behind the selection last day but he was sent off favourite so very likely better is expected from him. Flag On The Play is another interesting one, he finished 24 lengths ahead of Sticky Situation in a race here last year when both finished down the field at big prices. He is 20/1 today and I think he could run better than that and has minor place chances but unlikely to win as he will qualify for handicaps after this run.

Small win bet on Whenurgoodurgood @ 5/2

Good luck.