BEST of the BETS

Only a small field, but interesting race nonetheless, the two outsiders have little chance so this looks a 3 horse race and none of the three can be completely dismissed. Filly Malalacoota finished midfield on her debut at Leopardstown in October in what probably wasn’t a strong maiden for the course, but she seemed to show a huge improvement just a week later over 7 furlongs at same venue to finish 3rd, so she is interesting but for me there are enough doubts with this big step up in trip and taking on two colts with advantage of a recent run, so I am concentrating on Dunkirk Harbour and PEARLMAN. There is not a lot between them on form, but in my opinion Pearlman’s form reads slightly better, finished 7 lengths 3rd on debut, 4th horse Numerian has won two races since then and finished 3rd in a Listed race last time. Selection was very strong in betting over this c&d last time, but was just denied by a Dermot Weld newcomer, with 2 1/2 lengths back to 3rd. Both Pearlman and Dunkirk Harbour should come on for their first runs of the year, it’s just a case of which one of them shows more improvement, perhaps it will be Dunkirk Harbour as he has looked like he needs this step up in trip, but at 6/5 vs 9/4, I have gone for the bigger price of Pearlman.

On a side note, it is currently possible to virtually guarantee a profit on extra places market on this race, albeit only a tiny profit of just under 2.5%. Betfair Sportsbook are giving prices of 11/1 (e/w 4 places) for Lethal Endeavour and 14/1 (e/w 4 places) for Lady Of Luxury. Remember there are only 5 runners, so one of them has to finish 4th at least barring a highly unlikely event of both of them not completing. £5.45 e/w on LE returns £20.44 if it’s in first 4, £4.55 e/w on LoL returns £20.47 if that one finishes in first 4. Total outlay £20. But you have to keep in mind the possibility of a non runner and how rule 4 will impact those prices.

Good luck.