BEST of the BETS

Like yesterday, this is another race where I think the favourite should win but it is too short a price to back as a single, so looking for horses that may place and try the forecast. This race was run in two divisions last year, one of the divisions was won in impressive fashion by Black Op who then went on to finish 2nd in Baring Bingham and win the Mersey Hurdle. Other division was won by a 130-rated horse who finished 9th in Martin Pipe Handicap at festival. It’s fair to say there is nothing of calibre of Black Op in today’s field, this is more similar to other division with 128-rated Before Midnight the odds on favourite. It may be easy to be put off by the fact that BM has been beaten at short odds on all 3 starts over hurdles, but when you look at what he has come up against he can be considered unlucky. At Huntingdon, he was 2nd behind Cotswold Way who has won his next two. Unseated at Chepstow when in lead 2 out, among those behind him at the time was Getaway Trump, winner of his next two and 2nd in Challow Hurdle. Last time he was 2nd behind Tidal Flow, who looks a very good prospect having won a very good novice hurdle at Newbury next time.

So for these reasons, I think the favourite should win but 2/5 is no price to be backing. Let’s see if we can find something at bigger price for a place bet (field size of 8 is perfect for that kind of bet) or for forecast. Imperial Elysian has finished 5th in both his bumpers but form hasn’t worked out well, and stable could be in better form so for those reasons I have left him out. Also not keen on the 2nd fav De Forgotten Man for similar reasons, Vaughan hasn’t had a winner for over a month, and although he does get winners first time they tend to be much shorter price than this. Chocolate Box and Early Learner have possibilities but not totally convinced by either. Chocolate Box’s trainer is 0-45 on first time over hurdles with just 1 3rd place, that sole placing did come from a very similar profile horse that had been rated 84 on the flat, but on percentages I am happy to leave it out. Early Learner made her debut in a Listed bumper for mares but form hasn’t worked out that well and she was very disappointing over hurdles. That leaves me with two horses at big prices that I think could run well. Colonel Miller was well beaten on debut but showed improved form in next two bumpers, pedigree suggests he will be suited by this longer trip and Alan King does well with runners on hurdling debut. Other one is Debrouillard, who has had a couple of hurdle runs already and showed steady improvement. He would have needed the run when 6th of 12 over 2 and half mile at Wetherby, but I think he will be suited by the longer trip as he is a half brother to Vieux Lion Rouge (who has run well in Grand Nationals) and should improve.

Colonel Miller has been backed into 12/1 from 20/1, and Debrouillard is currently 28/1

I have done a small forecast Before Midnight/Colonel Miller, and a smaller one on Colonel Miller/Debrouillard

As always, it’s just my opinion about horses’ chances, if you want to back a particular horse don’t be put off by my negative comment about it.

Good luck.