• finley
    119
    Top man D.D
  • Bodger
    140
    Done analysis of the last 9 posted days of selections. Shlda been 10, but missed the first, which if you go back you'll see was also profitable.

    Just 5 wins from 68 (last 9 days) that have run so far. But that's alright. In truth I don't even need 5 wins from 100 at BSP, or even BOG!

    There have also been 6 placers.

    Win SR 7.4%. Place SR 8.8%. Combined win/place SR 16.2%. All 3 figures are very good for these prices, especially the win SR.

    Win prices showing best BOG and BSP win/place in brackets: 50/1 (62.43/15), 33/1 (44/6), 16/1 (40.36/9.07), 14/1 (10.36/4.06), 14/1 (7.75/2.77).

    Win profit at best BOG: 69 points.

    Win profit at BSP: 96.9.

    Placers: 66/1 (14.64), 50/1 (29.46), 33/1 (4.35), 28/1 *50pR4 (2.64), 25/1 (6.77), 20/1 (5.8).

    Place profit (including winners' place returns): 32.56.

    Combined BSP win/place profit: 129.46. That's from 9 posted days'selections.

    Remember that BSP win/place prices are affected by whether a horse has been backed in or not since the original BOG price.
  • Maxh
    14
    Impressive
  • Bodger
    140
    Thanks Maxh.

    Intend to take a day off from posting or even a break. But I will say this: anyone can, truly, create the same system for themselves:

    1) Decide on your minimum BOG price. I'm sticking strictly to 16/1 now, and I suggest you don't go under 14/1.

    2) Set yourself a minimum target win SR of 5%. Of course if the winners were all under 19/1 you'd lose on them, but they come in at much bigger prices too. If you're hitting on 5% or even as low as 3% you should be well in profit, certainly on Betfair, and your place SR will automatically be bigger than your win SR. The combined win/place SR should see a very comfortable, even fab profit, without the stress of extreme low SR from win only.

    3) Find yourself some system/ratings/tipster/whatever that will hit the win SR at your target minimum price. Frankly, I found that to be very easy.

    4) Paper trade or trade at minimum stakes for some weeks as you build stakes up. You can start with a minimum 5p e/w on the singles, even online. As long as your total bet on all selections hits at least 50p you'll be okay.

    5) I do the multiples at minimum stakes because even a win treble at 5p should return at least £500-£1000 at these prices. Don't expect to hit this more than once every 2 months though. It might do it once a month, I dunno, I've only showing 9 days results above.

    5) Exhibit the patience of Job. Basically, have very little interest in whether any particular day is a winning one or not. What counts is your results over several days. The place SR should at the very least keep things ticking over.
  • Bodger
    140
    On point 5 above, re multiples, I only do the win doubles and trebles at minimum stakes. If I get a huge win I'll probably do at least the 4folds as well.
  • Maxh
    14
    All logical and good sense
    But point 3 remains the issue
    A Rating with say 5per cent strike rate overall may we have 0 per cent above16/1. and maybe 25 per cent strike rate below 5/1
    Help!
  • Bodger
    140
    No, no, no - a rating that hits 5% AT THE TARGET PRICE LEVEL. Easy to find.

    Anyhow here's today's after all:

    Thurles 13:35
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 Paolozzi 50/1
    Thurles 14:10
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 A Toi Phil 25/1
    Ayr 14:30
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3,4 Finaghy Ayr 18/1
    Ayr 15:05
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 Bulls Head 20/1
  • Bodger
    140
    You can get slightly better prices on the last 3.
  • AKD
    189
    Well done on the brilliant result yesterday, and good post above explaining the system.

    Good luck with today’s selections.
  • Bodger
    140
    No luck today.
  • Bodger
    140
    All e/w:

    L'fd 1.0 G.Club 20/1

    1.30 S.Rose 20/1

    3.10 Planetoid 14/1

    K'tn 4.40 Mr Potter 28/1

    7.15 Esspeegee 50/1

    7.45 L.O.York 16/1,
    Affair 22/1
  • Bodger
    140
    E/w singles, and, since only 5 selections, doubles and trebles also e/w at 1/5th of singles unit stakes:

    Wolverhampton 16:45
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/4 1,2,3 Blue Rocks 33/1
    Wolverhampton 17:45
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 Raashdy 16/1
    Wolverhampton 18:45
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 Precious Plum 22/1
    Wolverhampton 19:45
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/4 1,2,3 Idol Deputy 50/1
    Wolverhampton 19:45
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/4 1,2,3 Little Choosey 20/1
  • Bodger
    140
    No luck today. 11 unplaced on the trot over last 2 posted days.
  • Bodger
    140
    Really should only have done the first two and the last one, since prices on the others are below my minimum. But have done the 6 to give greater interest in the day.

    Win singles only this time, plus win doubles and trebles at 1/5th singles stakes:

    Southwell 13:35
    Outright Betting
    Pearl Noir 20/1
    Southwell 14:05
    Outright Betting
    The Lock Master 16/1
    Southwell 15:40
    Outright Betting
    Arabic Culture 10/1
    Southwell 16:10
    Outright Betting
    Luis Vaz De Torres 12/1
    Newcastle 16:40
    Outright Betting
    Lucky Lodge 12/1
    Newcastle 18:25
    Outright Betting
    Malaspina 14/1
  • Bodger
    140
    Lucky Lodge got 4th, SP 7/1. That was the only chink of light today. Deffo due a winner.
  • Bodger
    140
    First 5 in win singles and win doubles, trebles at 1/5th singles stakes. Tried to do a L31 but they wouldn't accept it.

    Wolverhampton 13:30
    Outright Betting
    Twistsandturns 25/1
    Wolverhampton 14:05
    Outright Betting
    Outlaw Torn 20/1
    Wolverhampton 14:40
    Outright Betting
    Concur 18/1
    Wolverhampton 16:10
    Outright Betting
    Captain Pugwash 16/1
    Dundalk 17:30
    Outright Betting
    Fern Owl 25/1
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Second 5 ditto first 5 (note 2 picks in the 6.45):

    Newcastle 18:15
    Outright Betting
    Tiercel 20/1
    Newcastle 18:45
    Outright Betting
    Bahkit 16/1
    Newcastle 18:45
    Outright Betting
    Rock Island Line 20/1
    Dundalk 19:30
    Outright Betting
    Zalzar 25/1
    Newcastle 19:45
    Outright Betting
    Dream Ally 20/1
  • Bodger
    140
    Best thing about today was the stakes returned on 3 horses thanks to Newcastle being abandoned before the 6.45,

    It's now 28 selections since the last winner.
  • Bodger
    140
    Some smaller prices than I should take, just to get more races in.

    E/w singles, plus win doubles and trebles at 1/4 singles unit stakes:

    Dundalk 17:00
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 Best Not Argue 9/1
    Dundalk 17:30
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3,4 Pacolita 66/1
    Dundalk 18:00
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/4 1,2 Numerian 7/1
    Dundalk 18:30
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3 Admodum 50/1
    Dundalk 20:00
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3,4 Spinning Pearl 12/1
    Dundalk 20:30
    Outright Betting
    EW 1/5 1,2,3,4 Poitin 25/1
  • Bodger
    140
    At last a winner again. Numerian 7/1 in the 6.0. Also 2 n/rs in the 5.30 and 8.30.
  • Bodger
    140
    Actually made a small profit of 1/6th on outlay. Makes a change from last few posted days.
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