BEST of the BETS

1 from each of the 8 English Meetings, leaving the 3 Irish out of the equation;
12.05 Hunt STRONG RESEMBLANCE
1.05 Wolves ROBERO
1.50 Font THOMAS BLOSSOM
2.00 Winc KILFINICHEN BAY
2.05 Sedge NICEANDEASY
2.10 Weth LAKE VIEW LAD
2.20 Mkt.Ras EMERALD ROSE
3.05 Kemp POLITOLOGUE

Merry Christmas & Good Luck

Market Rasen 12.40 Champagne Mystery (nap).
Wincanton 12.20 Southfield Torr (nb)

Goog luck and look forward to a New Year.

Down Royal - I will start with a little about Gordon Elliott’s dominance at this fixture in recent seasons. In last 10 years, Elliott has won 17 of the 70 races run at this meeting, that’s almost 25% of the races. To put it into context, next trainer on the list has just 5 winners in same period, that is the local trainer Colin McBratney, with Noel Meade back in 3rd with 4 wins. Elliott’s record at this fixture has been improving year on year with 8 winners and 8 other placers from 23 runners in last 3 seasons, only 3 of the 7 unplaced horses were priced under 10/1. In fact, all 17 of Elliott’s winners have been priced under 10/1, that is 17 winners from 40 runners in this price category, returning LSP of +29 pts at SP, so if past trends continue, I wouldn’t put anyone off putting his shorter priced runners in a multiple bet.

I have listed the single bets I have placed so far, and reasons given below.

12:00 - Grotesque @ 2/1
1:00 - Milan Flyer (e/w) @ 20/1
1:35 - Calicojack @ 5/2
2:45 - Better Back Bob (e/w) @ 14/1
3:20 - Valdieu @ 15/8


12:00 - Gordon Elliott (4 wins) and Noel Meade (2 wins) between them have won 6 of the 9 runnings of this. Favourites have won 6 times, 8 of the 9 winners have come from first 3 in betting with biggest priced winner at 8/1. This looks quite open due to the fact that 7 of the 12 runners are making their chasing debut, and most of those with chasing experience look beatable. Snugsborough Hall with a rating of 116 is the best of those with experience, and he should run well but GROTESQUE has achieved same rating over hurdles and as he is expected to make a better chaser, I prefer him out of the two market leaders. Noel Meade also has a good record in this with 2 wins and 3 places from 8 runners, and his runner Getaway Kid also has good place chance but for win purposes I have backed Grotesque @ 2/1 and in forecast with Snugsborough Hall & Getaway Kid.

12:30 - not had a bet in this race yet, Ticket To Ride is respected because of his trainer, but form doesn’t warrant a price of 11/8. Bective Cave (7/1) placed 3rd in a stronger race last time and he has only had 4 runs over fences so far, he heads my shortlist ahead of Allduckornodinner, Drummullagh Rocky, Coolnagorna Giggs & Shaluna.

1:00 - Gordon Elliott (Kruzhlinin) is 2 from 7 and Enda Bolger (Stand Up And Fight) is 3 from 5 in this race, so no surprise to see those two at head of betting. I prefer Elliott’s runner of the two, Sizing Coal & Coastal Tiep also have chances but I have tried MILAN FLYER (20/1) who wasn’t beaten far by Coastal Tiep last time but is a much bigger price and could run well.

1:35 - this looks a good maiden hurdle, CALICOJACK (5/2) has already finished ahead of his two market rivals Sinoria & Invincible Cave when 3 of them finished 2nd, 4th & 5th respectively at Gowran Park last month. All 3 were making their hurdling debut, and I see no reason why Calicojack can’t beat them again. Small forecasts with Kalum River & Rakhine State.

2:10 - no bet, Melly And Me could run well and Pilot Station has place chances.

2:45 - local trainers have struggled at this fixture in last 3 seasons, with just 3 wins from 134 runners but two of those 3 wins have come in this race. It’s bit of a long shot but I have backed 12yo BETTER BACK BOB (14/1), who is returning from a 400+ day absence but has won here before, and also run well when placing on both previous runs after such a long absence. Trainer’s 3 previous runners in the race were all unplaced but two of them ran well just finishing out of places including one after a similar absence. Probably won’t win, but I think he has place chances. Mistiness & Boris Boru are another couple that could run well at big prices.

3:20 - VALDIEU (15/8) has finished 2nd on his last 3 starts, but one of those was here behind the highly regarded Malone Road. That form makes him the one to beat.

Good luck.

Ones I like

Sedgefield 12.25
Schiehallion Munro 11/8
Sedgefield 2.05
Sherriff Garrett 9/4
Huntingdon 12.35
Deyrann De Carjac 6/4

26th Dec FONTWELL 12:15 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 164y - Each Way
1. Ding Ding
14/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
26th Dec WETHERBY 13:00 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 3f 154y - Each Way
7. Diocese
13/2
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 3 Places
26th Dec HUNTINGDON 13:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f 145y - Each Way
1. San Pedro De Senam
4/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 3 Places
26th Dec HUNTINGDON 14:15 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 3f 189y - Each Way
5. Le Capricieux
11/2
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
26th Dec KEMPTON 15:05 EVENT 3m 0f 0y - Each Way
2. Clan Des Obeaux
16/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
26th Dec FONTWELL 15:35 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 3f 49y - Each Way
1. Seaweed
5/2
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Stake:
£100.00
Potential Returns:
£31,778.08

And a cheeky ew acca for a life changing win :smile:

12.10 Leopardstown. Vision D'Honneur
12.40 Leopardstown. City Island
1.20 Kempton. Glen Forsa
1.25. Limerick. Polished Steel
2.15. Wolves. Creative Talent

Need Seaweed for a large return :smile:

The curse of boftheb strikes again

Some nice winners and placers in there, and lsp profit on Amadeus, Egger, Stevie and Dazzler’s selections. Well done everyone.

Little loss on my selections as only had a 5/2 winner, but could easily have been profitable if only I had reversed the forecast in the first.

Good thread, cheers Mugz.

Thanks to all who posted and well done to those who returned a profit.

I'm going to give a tenner free bet to Stevie Wonder for the Clan Des Obeaux and Diocese tips.

The free bet race is the Newbury 2.25

GOOD LUCK

Cheers Mugz - Er how do I do it? I've various accounts.
Already studied as it's big Scoop rollover - I'm having a serious perm the Scoop 6.
Had it down to two - REIKERS ISLAND (IRE) 23 and Vice Et Virtue. Would go for Vice Et Virtue assuming it's a runner. Was delighted with King George result - Pub went mad as there were a few of us on it :heart:

I place bet and if it wins you will get the cash via PayPal.

Cheers Mugz - I'll stick to Vice despite the drift in the market :smile:

You are on at 8/1 win only.

GOOD LUCK