BEST of the BETS

I normally pass my fancies onto Bob and he sends them out. I’ve told him to standby for a tip I will give him on Saturday.

If you've never heard of Rothman you must have led a very sheltered life as a punter, grumpy. Anyhow, basically just avoid.

Don't waste your credit.

Morning! The FREE tip for you to watch (or bet small) Wetherby 12.05 No 11 TWO FOR GOLD. I'm investing £200 on this (but having £2,000 on one next week!) I hope you'll join me for after today's? Stable contact reports he's galloping well & even fancy him to beat the red hot favourite because he wants this longer trip. Small ground concern because he's only run on good/soft not soft. If it was better I'd have £400 on. Chat later, all the best, Bob

Winner well backed. I told Bob that was the one to be on.

To be frank I didn't expect him to go off such a short price. I very rarely bet odds on. It might even had something to do with this mailing & me giving out a free tip? I hope not! I think it was just stable confidence which snowballed into Professional confidence at the track. He won like a cert didn't he! If I may digress into a little maths just this once I'll explain why it was the equivalent of a 33/1 -> 3/1 gamble!

Absolutely smashed in the betting! To move a horse from 15/8 down to 4/6 takes an enormous amount of money because bookies shorten horses based on liability not bet size. For example a £30 bet at 33/1 creates a liability of a grand (£990 to be precise) so it gets chopped to 25/1 for peanuts. Another £40 creates another £1,000 liability and it's now 20/1 & so on. Amazingly you could smash a 33/1 down to 10/1 for just £143!!

Contrast that to a Good Horse near the front of the market say at 2/1. It takes a £500 bet to create a liability of £1,000 for the gutless bookie. Then £533 at 15/8, £571 at 7/4, £615 @ 13/8, 667 @ 6/4 and so on. There are 14 price breaks between 2/1 & 4/6 and the total adds up to £13,582! Compare that to the 14 price breaks between 33/1 and 3/1 which needs only £1767 (or 8 x less!) to move it the equivalent "distance" in betting terms

It's one reason why Professionals prefer to win more often playing near the front of the market because you can get bigger bets on ... & win more often! You're better off betting 3 x 2/1 Good Horses in a 26/1 treble than wasting money on a 25/1 no hoper. We all love a 33/1 winner but it's hard to get a decent bet on so you win peanuts & then get banned by the bookies too! I often see stables betting silly big priced horses which don't often win!

Interesting reading.