One a day vs Multiples
  • AKD
    492
    I will be using this thread to compare my performance on single and multiple bets this month, keeping a record on one thread will also help me stay disciplined. I will have one single bet a day and others in a multiple. Single bet isn’t necessarily my best bet of day, it’s whatever looks most interesting to me so quite often will be a big price. I will give my reasons for the single selection but not for multiples.

    2:15 Musselburgh - SINGLE ESTATE was very poor on the flat (rated below 40), and although unplaced he has shown better form in 3 novice hurdles. A look at his trainer Simon Waugh’s record shows that he is 0-66 with his runners on flat, and even over jumps in non handicaps it’s a poor record of 1 win from 142, but record in handicaps is a much improved 22 from 200, that’s an 11% win strike rate (27% place). Not bad for a small trainer, who only has about a dozen horses at a time. 43% of his horses get their first win on their 3rd, 4th or 5th start in handicap, but no winners yet on first run in a handicap which is a negative as this is selection’s first run in handicap. Another possible negative is the 4 month break. Handicap mark looks about ok but he probably needs to improve a bit. Trainer has a good record at track, no winners from 11 runners but 4 of the 11 placed at prices of 40/1, 28/1, 28/1 & 5/1. Favourite obviously has a strong chance and is the one to beat, so I have backed mine in the without favourite betting.

    Single Estate - 0.5 pt each way @ 10/1 without the favourite = total stake 1 pt

    Multiple bet
    3:45 Wolverhampton - Storm Lightning (14/1)
    4:15 Wolverhampton - Zipedeedodah (11/4)
    6:15 Wolverhampton - Cold Fusion (40/1)

    0.1 pt each way patent = total stake 1.4 pts

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Singles = -1
    Multiples = -1.4

    All 4 unplaced, not the best way to start but let’s see what today brings.

    3:00 Southwell - TOWER OF ALLEN, 14 race maiden but finished a close 3rd at Market Rasen in March from same mark as today, that form gives him a good chance. Only 7th of 14 last time, but was weak in betting and possibly needed the run, although trainer usually has a good record first time in season. Trainer has a good record with fancied runners here, 7 from 34 (+25 LSP) with those priced 10/1 or under, and jockey booking also looks interesting.

    Tower Of Allen, 1 pt each way @ 9/1 = total stake 2 pts

    Also in multiple bet

    1:20 Lingfield - Madrinho (13/2)
    2:10 Fakenham - Westbrook Bertie (6/1)
    3:00 Southwell - Tower Of Allen (9/1)
    3:10 Fakenham - Dowhatudobest (10/3)

    0.1 pt each way yankee = total stake 2.2 pts

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • CMB
    308
    Good luck mate
    CMB Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, CMB. Tower Of Allen placed for a small profit, but the winner was the last one I dropped from my shortlist :(

    Multiple bet was poor again with only a couple of placers at 9/1 & 7/1.

    Total after 2 days

    Singles = +0.25
    Multiples = -2.40
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Correction - multiples total should be minus 2.80

    Wednesday

    7:45 Newcastle - Shane Donohoe has a good record when sending horses over from Ireland, especially on all weather, and this looks a less competitive race than the couple of Dundalk handicaps that ROCK IN SOCIETY finished 4th in. He has been weakening in final furlong after making the running over 7 furlongs last twice so drop back to 6 should suit. Jockey hasn’t ridden a winner for couple of weeks but he hasn’t had many rides with a good chance.

    Rock In Society, 1 pt each way @ 11/2 = 2 pts total stake

    Multiple bet

    11:30 Lingfield - Ripley @ 9/1 (1/5th Odds, 4 places)
    2:50 Ludlow - Cuban Pete @ 11/1
    7:45 Newcastle - Dandy Highwayman @ 7/2

    0.1 pt each way patent = 1.4 pts total stake

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • CMB
    308
    Like this one too
    CMB Options
  • AKD
    492
    Main selection was poor. 7/2 winner and a non runner in patent meant just about got money back on that bet.

    Totals

    Singles = -0.75
    Multiples = -2.80
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    7:30 Chelmsford - SALATEEN is pretty consistent and for a class 2 handicap this doesn’t look very strong. 1 lb lower than when finishing 3rd of 15 in a stronger handicap here in September. Small fields suit his style of running and maybe able to dominate these from the front.

    Salateen, 1 pt win @ 5/2

    Multiple
    1:30 Wincanton - Some Chaos (5/2)
    2:35 Wincanton - Lough Derg Mystery (12/1)

    0.2 pt e/w singles & double = 1.2 pts total stake

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • CMB
    308
    Good luck mate
    CMB Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, CMB.

    Poor again yesterday, no return on single and only 0.3 on multiple.

    Totals
    Singles = -1.75
    Multiples = -3.70

    3:10 Exeter - FIREBIRD FLYER hasn’t won since his win in Midlands National 2 years ago, but has slipped down 26 lbs in the handicap since that win. Ran well to finish 2nd last time, and extreme distance and conditions today will suit. Last year’s winner Yanmare could be a danger.

    Firebird Flyer, 1 pt each way @ 6/1 = total stake 2 pts

    Multiple
    5:30 Dundalk - May Remain (16/1, 1/5 4 places)
    7:15 Kempton - Simple Thought (6/1)

    0.2 pt each way singles & double = total stake 1.2 pts

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Loss of 2 points on single and 0.8 pt on multiple on Friday.

    Running total
    Singles = -3.75
    Multiples = -4.50

    Only the single today.

    1:45 Musselburgh - Peter Bowen’s first runner at Musselburgh in 9 years will be popular and he has a good chance, but I have gone for one of the local runners, the outsider of the 5 runner field, CHARLIE SNOW ANGEL. Selection has a good strike rate, having won twice and placed another 3 times from just 10 runs over fences, and he has won twice in class 4, albeit both wins were in weaker class 4s than this. But he is getting a lot of weight (nearly 2 stone from the fav) from all the runners and I think could run well at a big price.

    Charlie Snow Angel, 1 pt each way @ 14/1

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • Bodger
    166
    Picked this one meself too, GL.
    Bodger Options
  • Bodger
    166
    A friend of Robert Winston (who rides this one) has put up Jack Bear in the L'fd 6.30. They usually do well when he tips his. 11/1 most places. I'm also putting this up on board without the explicit reasons for it.
    Bodger Options
  • Bodger
    166
    Woops, lol. Now you know exactly why I tipped it under Xmas gambles thread.
    Bodger Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks Bodger, Charlie Snow Angel ran like a 16/1 shot in 5 runner race, finishing last.

    Running total
    Singles = -5.75
    Multiples = -4.50

    Only the single today, and it’s another very risky one.

    12:25 Bangor - ALF ‘N’ DOR is risky because he was beaten 50+ lengths just a week ago, and he is also due to go down 3 lbs in handicap. My reason for thinking he could run better is the different going, he has won or placed 10 times out of 13 times he has run on soft or heavy compared to just 2 places from 12 on good going he ran on last week. He had finished 30 lengths ahead of today’s favourite Knocknamona (who won this race last year, but from a 9 lbs lower mark) at Market Rasen in March, although both of them were well beaten. Not confident because of quick turn out after a poor run, but taken a small chance anyway.

    Alf ‘n’ Dor, 0.5 pt each way @ 10/1

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Not going well at all, another loser yesterday.

    Singles = -6.75
    Multiples = -4.50

    Just the one again today.

    2:10 Doncaster - CLIFFS OF DOVER (7/2) won the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle on this card two years ago, had injury problems and only two hurdle runs since then, disappointing both times but is potentially on a good mark and could win this if settling better than last time. His main rival according to betting, Irish Roe won this last year but remains 10 lbs higher than that win.

    Cliffs Of Dover, 1 pt win @ 7/2

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Running total
    Singles = -7.75
    Multiples = -4.50

    4:15 Wolverhampton - SUNSHINEANDBUBBLES has got 6 career wins to her name, 4 of those wins have come here, record over c&d reads 744132112, and she has now dropped to her last winning mark so I hope she will run well today.

    Sunshineandbubbles, 1 pt each way (4 places, Betfair SB) @ 9/1 = 2 pts

    Also done a trixie at Ffos Las

    2:15 - Shaman Du Berlais (5/2)
    2:50 - The Gipper (11/8)
    3:20 - Sutters Mill (3/1)

    0.5 pt win trixie = 2 pts

    Good luck.
    AKD Options
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