BEST of the BETS

Bet #131 - 8:30 Wolverhampton - Kemerton @ 10/3

I have let the market influence my decision to some degree on this one. Form line that interested me was the Kempton race 15 days ago in which Trusty Scout (9/1) won and Kemerton (11/4 F) was only 7th, beaten over 10 lengths. Kemerton is 5 lbs better off today, which by itself isn't enough to turn it around but I expect some improvement from him for couple of reasons. One, last run was Kemerton's only 2nd go on the all weather, and he had started big prices in all previous runs including when tried in a class 2 on turf. He is related to a maiden winner on all weather, and dam related to couple of maiden AW winners too, so I expect some improvent on this surface.

Other reason is, the Kempton race suited hold up horses and Trusty Scout was able to come from behind to win, predicted pace for this race is weaker. That was Trusty Scout's first win in a handicap at the 31st attempt, though he had been pretty consistent before that. Kemerton & Trusty Scout were joint favs this morning, but I was half expecting a drift on TS, and as that has happened I have gone ahead with my bet on Kemerton. Trusty Scout would not have been a bet for me, but drift on him has, in my mind, eliminated one of potential dangers. I do think Kemerton will improve from his last run, it's just a question of whether the improvement will be big enough to get the win or not.