BEST of the BETS

Having a bet tomorrow. It is slight odds on and of course there is no such thing as a certainty, but it really sticks out so found it hard to resist.

Bet #113 - 3:40 Goodwood - My Prospero, 1 pt win @ 10/11, also 1/2 pt straight forecast My Prospero/King Of Conquest, total staked 1.5 pts

119-rated My Prospero drops down to Listed class for first time since his win in Heron Stakes last year. He went on to win Group 2 over this distance in France last season before finishing a close 3rd in Champion Stakes. Failed to get close in two Group 1s this season but close 2nd in Group 2 York Stakes last time looks good even if he had gone off a short priced favourite. The winner was an improver and the 3rd Royal Champion had won Wolferton (Listed) at RA, in that race King Of Conquest & Savvy Victory, who are 2nd & 3rd favourites for tomorrow's race, were well behind.

It shows how far ahead My Prospero is as those two horses are rated 111 and yet both have to concede 3 lbs to the selection. He probably doesn't want the going to be too testing as he was pulled out of a race at Ayr at the weekend because of it, but with another windy day forecast tomorrow I expect it to dry out sufficiently and this slight drop in distance from last race should help too. He is yet to race at Goodwood and taking on three CD winners but I don't expect it to be a problem, his half brother My Oberon placed in a Group 3 on only run here.

If there is one doubt then it is that his main target is likely to be next month's Champion Stakes, so may not be fully wound up for this. But he is so far ahead of his rivals on ratings that he doesn't need to be at his best to win this. In last 20 runnings of this race, only seven 114+ rated horses have contested, 5 of the 7 won outright with other two dead-heating.

King Of Conquest finished couple of places ahead of Savvy Victory (4th & 6th) in Rose Of Lancaster (Group 3), there is no obvious reason for placings to be reversed, so I expect KoC to be the one to chase the favourite home and have put him in for forecast. Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca are the unknowns but need to improve as both step up from maiden wins to Listed for first time.