BEST of the BETS

Bet #112 - 5:25 Fairyhouse - Muhaarar's Girl @ 7/4

Not an easy decision despite the short price as can never feel too confident about backing a horse rated below 70 in a maiden but it does look quite a weak race. She has finished 2nd in her last two runs, including when beaten nearly 4 lengths as evens favourite by Hazalaya last time, the winner won a handicap next time off OR 79 though and selection was 5 1/2 clear of the 3rd Rebecca's Girl who re-opposes on same terms.

It was similar story for MG on 2nd last run that she was easily beaten by the favourite but was in turn well clear of the 3rd, winner of that race too (Lady Lunette, runs in Group 3 today) won a handicap next time off 84. So her form looks consistent even if unspectacular. She could be vulnerable if there is anything above average in the race but I am not sure there is. As mentioned above, she had beaten Rebecca's Girl easily last time so the danger could come from the two once-raced fillies namely Rattletheonionbag & Spanish Rose but debut form of neither of them looks anything special. Rattletheonionbag finished 3rd (33/1) but the winning favourite was a 23-race maiden and the runner up Paradise Perfect (Rattle's stablemate) is a 9-race maiden so it's safe to say the race wasn't up to usual standard of a Curragh maiden. Furthermore, Paradise Perfect had previously finished behind Rebecca's Girl so through that formline Rattle looks held by the fav. Spanish Rose was 5th (18/1) on debut and she also needs to improve, though it is interesting that she is so short in betting today.

I think betting before the off may give clues about what is expected from the opposition, but Muhaarar's Girl can be expected to be thereabouts based on her last two runs and if going off favourite I think she has a winning chance.