BEST of the BETS

Bet #107 - 7:13 Salisbury - Natzor, e/w @ 14/1

Natzor is yet to win a race, but has only had 7 runs for Archie Watson so there is still time for him to get a win. Last couple of runs over 10F have been disappointing, finishing 8/10 & 10/12, but I see this drop to a mile a big positive as he has placed in all 3 runs over this distance at prices of 11/2, 28/1 & 9/2, in complete contrast to 4 runs over 10F where he has failed to get close in any of those races. He is from the family of One Cool Cat (Group 1 winner at up to 7f), others in family also suggest this trip is likely to be more suitable than the 10.

Risk is that there may have been other reasons apart from the distance for poor showing last twice, but whether he wins or not I think he should at least do better tonight as he has also earned a 3 lbs drop for his last two runs. Last race also looked much more competitive than this, and form has worked out well. From 7 horses from that race to have run since then, 2 won and 3 placed next time. Mudskipper (8th) was 1 3/4 lengths ahead of my selection, he has also been dropped 2 lbs so is dangerous to ignore but I feel over this distance Natzor could turn it around.

At 14/1, there are no great expectations but I think he should run better than that price, whether it will be good enough to get a return or not, will have to wait and see.