BEST of the BETS

Bet #102 - 5:20 Catterick - Obee Jo, e/w @ 12/1 (almost all bookies paying 4 places, 1/5 odds)

Poor run last time when only 8th of 12 over CD, but I am forgiving it on account of a very slow start that saw him spend a large part of the race in last place. That poor effort followed a big drift in betting, he had been 7/2 joint favourite in morning but had drifted to 6/1 by the off as the winner was gambled down to favouritism. This was the 7th time in his career that Obee Jo had been morning favourite for a race, out of these 6 times he drifted during the day and lost every time. Market has been a good indicator of his chances in past, he is 6 from 25 when shortening from the morning price compared to 1 from 22 when drifting or staying same. So I think last run can at least in part be put down to lack of market confidence. Hopefully, market will be bit more positive today and if breaking on level terms I think he has chance of finishing in first 4.

He is one of 3 runners in race for Tim Easterby. Easterby has only had 7 runners in this race going back to 2009, and won it once, with Our Charlie Brown (2019). Obee Jo finished only 5th of 11 in one of the divisions of this race last year (race was split into two divisions) but that was from a 5 lbs higher mark than today and he was possibly unsuited by Good to Firm going, he is 0 from 10 on GF. All 7 of his wins have come on Good or softer (5G, 1GS, 1S).

His last 3 wins have come over this CD, from OR 68 in September '21, that was his peak and he went winless last season but had dropped to a good mark this season and won from marks of 56 & 57 here, he is on 60 today. Latest win was on 3rd last run, in July, it looked a weak race that he won but he did it well and on weights he is closely matched with 3rd placed Asmund who is a much shorter price today. Winning time of that race was 0.29 secs faster than other division that included 3 of today's rivals who are all currently ahead of selection in betting. So I feel 12/1 is fair price based on that form.

His two below par runs since that have been over this CD too which could be seen as a negative, but first of these was in class 4 (he is 0 from 12 at that level) and the slow start last time. Also he has never won within two runs of a win in his career. It's a competitive race and at age of 7, his best days are probably behind him, but I feel he has a squeak and at the price I am prepared to take the risk.