BEST of the BETS

Bet #100 - 5:25 Beverley - Storm Venture, win bet @ 16/1

Quite a risky one today as selection is yet to place in 8 runs but his handicap mark has kept dropping and this looks a much weaker race than the ones he has been contesting.

He started in nurseries last season from mark of 72 but has now dropped to 62. He has not managed to get close in 3 runs this season, beaten 12, 9 & 7 lengths, but using average OR as a guide his races got tougher each time, first one was 69 AOR and he was also a big drifter in betting which suggests he needed the run, 2nd & 3rd runs were in 70 AOR & 75 AOR respectively and he started big prices both times, now this is a big drop to 64 AOR today. It's interesting that he is still with Richard Fahey as he has a very good record of getting a win with this type. Backing all his runners who were still a maiden after 8 to 12 runs shows a good 17% strike rate & 24% ROI from nearly 600 bets.

Drop to 5f, especially around here, shouldn't be a problem and could actually be a positive as his best two placings (3/7 & 3/6 in nurseries) came on his two runs over 5f. Dam was related to 5f winner (4 times) Wanchai Lad, one of his wins came here at Beverley (OR 79). Draw in stall 9 (effectively it's 8 because of a non runner) is a negative but it's not impossible.

I am hoping that he will be supported in betting, as one negative I have is jockey Oisin Orr doesn't ride many big priced winners, when Fahey has bigger priced winners they are mostly through jockeys he doesn't use regularly. Orr is only 8 from 255 with horses priced between 10/1 & 28/1 over last two years.