BEST of the BETS

Bet #99 - 6:30 Newcastle - Sea The Dream @ 10/3

Ed Bethell is having a good season, 26 winners so far this season at 24% strike rate and 1.18 A/E, winners include a couple of 2yo s and I am hoping this one can add to that. Sea The Dream has finished 8th & 2nd in two runs so far, and although it's a slight negative that Callum Rodriguez has gone to Nottingham instead but I see it more as a positive for stable's Nottingham runners than a negative for this one (will be interested in seeing how they do at Nottingham). Connor Beasley, who takes the ride on selection, is not in bad form himself having almost a 50% place strike rate over the last fortnight, 11 from 23 that includes 5 winners. Beasley has ridden for the stable only 4 times before for one win (15/8).

Sea The Dream is stepping up to a mile and running on all weather for first time after his first two runs were both at Haydock (7f), but I don't expect either of these to be a problem, his half brother Merricourt was a 1 mile winner on AW.

A line through Serenity Dream gives my selection the edge over one of his main rivals Star Runner. Serenity Dream had finished a length and 3 quarters ahead of Sea The Dream in a race where both were making their debuts, next time SD beat Star Runner by 4 and half. I accept that Star Runner could improve but Sea The Dream has already shown improvement from that debut run, on debut he was 2 and half lengths behind Paladin but when meeting same opponent next time the gap was just a neck, so there was definite improvement.

Sea The Dream had gone off 7/2 2nd fav last time, although the race favourite Ajwadi was only 5th both he and the 4th (a newcomer) won next time out so the Haydock form looks strong enough as the winner was also prominent in betting.

I rate the Karl Burke newcomer Golden West a big danger, his price went up from £35,000 to £90,000 from foal to yearling and as he also holds an entry in Group 2 Champagne Stakes, looking ahead he is potentially the best horse in race. Karl Burke is 6 from 12 (+19.78 LSP) with owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid's newcomers. Golden West's dam or any of her 3 siblings didn't win on debut though so it's possible he may need more time and I just favour Sea The Dream with his experience.