BEST of the BETS

Bet #93 - 7:15 Galway - Livio Milo @ 2/1

Going against a horse that I backed last time. I had backed Pier Pressure at Naas but he disappointed, although he got backed from 5/4 down to 8/15 it proved a false price as during the race he never looked like winning and I don't think fitness was the issue. It's possible he will improve for extra furlong today but that last run has put me off, he should have done much better as he also had course form. Nelda was just behind him that day and she has since finished 6th in Group 3 so she is one of the dangers but I am going with Livio Milo.

Livio Milo is still a maiden after 7 starts but is very consistent having finished 2nd on his last 3 starts. 3LR at Listowel in early June, that is usually a strong maiden. In five previous runnings of that race, horses who finished 2nd all won within next two starts. Livio has had two more runs and not won yet but both times he finished 2nd behind odds on shots so can't be faulted too much.

His 4LR was also in a race that has worked out well, he finished only 4th but was beaten less than a length. The winner, 2nd, 3rd, 5th & 9th have won 6 races between them since then. A line through that 9th Final Check also gives him an edge over Nelda, FC was 8 3/4 lengths behind Livio and then finished 5 1/2 behind Nelda, admittedly that was Nelda's debut and she has improved since then but still I think that form line gives my selection a good chance.

One worry is that Dermot Weld is having a quiet season, just 13 winners so far this flat season but this is the meeting he does so well at, he is 3 from 9 in this race, all 3 winners were favourites (3 from 5 with favs).