BEST of the BETS

Bet #91 - 3:40 Ayr - Black Friday, e/w @ 13/2

Breaking my own rule today. Using my stats I couldn't rule out any of the top 3 in betting, usually I stop looking further into a race when this happens because stats are telling me that it's difficult to find much of an edge in these situations. But with this race I kept looking further into the form and liked this one enough to take a chance.

Black Friday, the 8 year old, is on a long losing run of 20 but has now dropped to his lowest mark ever. Winner of 6 handicaps, including 3 here at Ayr, from marks of 69, 72, 77, 82, 83, 85. Last of those wins at Pontefract back in October 2021, he is clearly in decline now but has respectable enough recent efforts to suggest he still has enough ability to be competitive off his current mark of 68.

Although all 3 of his wins here have come over 6 furlongs, he has also run well on 2 out of 4 runs over this trip of 7 1/2 f. Last two of those runs over this CD, he was down the back (double digit prices both times) but both those were on Good going, his record is 1 from 19 on Good. Earlier two weeks efforts on G/S he finished 2/13 & 4/12 from marks of 75 & 86, so I don't think there is any real worry about him not staying the trip. Overall record on today's Soft going is pretty good, 3 from 9 on Soft, in class 4 or lower it's 3 from 6 making the frame on other 3 runs. This will be the first time in a while that he is getting the combination of soft going & class 4.

His last two runs have been in Class 3, interestingly he is still getting weight from most of these despite the drop in class. 4th of 8 on 2LR wasn't too bad an effort and although only 9th of 16 last time, that form doesn't look too bad with the 5th Aberama Gold going on to win the Skybet Dash over the weekend. Close behind Black Friday was American Affair, the 3yo could be a danger today if improving for step up in trip.

Mike Smith complicates matters a bit by also running Burning The Bails as his 2nd strings do often win, but BTB is still a maiden and has previously been beaten in a seller so is difficult to fancy.

Current price of 13/2 may look a bit short for one who hasn't won for so long, but I am hoping it will drift a bit so am on at BOG.