BEST of the BETS

Very difficult decision today whether to bet on this or not, in the end I decided to go for relative safety by backing win and place.

Bet #90 - 2:50 Pontefract - Al Mubhir, 50/50 split win & 2 places (win part @ 16/5, 2 to place @ BSP)

Race average = 916 (data quality = 14)

1. Flight Plan (1018)
2. Al Mubhir (981)
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3. Witch Hunter (909)
4. Raadobarg (879)
5. Poker Face (867)
6. Excel Power (851)

Very tricky Listed race with just 6 lbs separating all 6 runners on official ratings, and it's also a bit unusual that none of the 6 have won a Stakes (Listed or Group) race yet and some like the top-rated Raadobarg (0 places from 9 stakes races) have had a lot of chances. This is the first time in 17 runnings of this race that there is no stakes winner in there.

Al Mubhir is one of those who still has potential to do better. He was sent off a short priced favourite last time when stepped up to Listed class for first time and finished only 3rd, but that was a stronger race than this. The winner was rated 112 and was a previous Group 2 winner, runner up Holguin has won a Listed race since then, beating one of today's rivals Witch Hunter. That race was over 7f, a distance Al Mubhir hadn't run over since his debut, his last two wins have come over a mile and extended mile so return to a mile here should suit.

Haggas/Marquand combination has a very good record in Listed races, 14 wins (with 14 different horses) from 47 runners in Listed races over last two years for LSP of +22.77. Marquand has only 1 win from 5 rides on this horse but that win was at 5/1 so shows a level stakes profit.

Al Mubhir was sent off favourite for the Lincoln earlier in the season, he finished only 5th but it wasn't a bad run, Witch Hunter was well behind in that race (probably didn't stay). In that Lincoln result, there was continuity in form from Al Mubhir's 3yo days as the runner up Awaal had also beaten him similar distance in a hot novice race at Haydock the previous season. Awaal going on to run well in both the Royal Hunt Cup & Bunbury Cup gives a boost to the Lincoln form.

Although it's a tricky race to find the winner of, with outsider and lowest rated horse in race Excel Power returning from absence and probable non stayer Witch Hunter it looks likely to leave other 4 to fight it out and as one of the lesser exposed ones I am hoping Al Mubhir will be in first two at least.