BEST of the BETS

Bet #89 - 3:20 Uttoxeter - He Is A Cracker @ 5/2

Race average = 1105 (data quality = 24)

1. He Is A Cracker (1173)
2. Do No Wrong (1156)
-----------------------------------------
3. Prison Break (1104)
4= Eightytwo Team (1063)
4= Prince Cleni (1063)
6. Mystic Man (1012)

As you can see data quality is low due to small sample size so have to be careful with above numbers.

He Is A Cracker is yet to win a race from 11 starts but is interesting now returning to fences. His two previous runs over fences (both in 2021) saw him place (3/16 & 2/8), including off 4 lbs higher mark than today. Had only one run last season (over hurdles) and was well beaten, but has returned in good form this season, unlucky not to win first up (beaten short head after jockey dropped whip). He was raised 3 lbs for it and could be considered slightly disappointing when favourite next time, finishing 3rd of 10, the clear winner has won two more races since then though so that effort may possibly be a bit better than it looked at the time. And return to fences off same mark today looks a good move to me.

10 lbs conditional jockey Isabelle Ryder seems to know the horse well as she has been on board for his last 3 runs. I happened to watch her ride on Alioski yesterday, although they eventually lost I thought she did well to get him into contention after the horse had almost refused to race at the start and conceded a lot of ground, so I don't have any worries on account of the jockey even though this is her first time over bigger obstacles. Her claim also means that selection is receiving 13 lbs and upwards from his 4 remaining rivals and 17 lbs from the favourite who is also ridden by a claiming jockey.

Selection's form figures in races over 2m7f and further read 03223, the unplaced run was in a maiden @ 125/1 so can be disregarded. I feel this is good placement by the trainer as 1 or 2 others in this race still have to prove their stamina.

One doubt, other than him not having won a race yet, I have is because he is the lowest rated horse in race and there are horses with recent winning form higher up in the handicap. But I wanted to oppose the favourite Mystic Man in this as he has gone up 8 lbs for winning a 3 runner race last time, so I think he needs to improve again although that is not impossible given his profile.

I can't rule out Do No Wrong as he is only 3 lbs higher than his win earlier in the season, but he is not the most consistent having failed to complete on 2 of his last 4 runs, and has to still prove himself over this distance, so he looked a riskier proposition today.