BEST of the BETS

Bet #88 - 3:30 Lingfield - Dark Company @ 3/1

Race average 800.3 (data quality = 442)

1. Doonbeg Farmer (804)
2. Dark Company (803.3)
3. Aryaah (803.2)
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4. Raphel Jake (799.8)
5. Naadyaa (799.7)
6= Global Style (799)
6= Send In The Clouds (799)
8. Creationist (794)

Dark Company has finished 2nd on his last 3 starts but I don't see it as a big problem in this case. He was 2nd fav, 3rd fav & 4th fav for those three races, last two races were won by the SP favourite and 3rd last race by morning favourite, it shows Dark Company has run up to or better than market expectations in all these races and with the fancied runners winning it gives a solid look to the form. He is again up against a short priced favourite Naadyaa, but this one is a filly who is still a maiden after 20 runs and only has 3 placed runs. Interestingly, DC's last win (January '22) came in a race where a filly was favourite.

Selection is dropping into selling company now, it is not the first time he has dropped to this level, he also ran in a selling handicap in April and although only 4th (was also 4th best in betting) he was beaten less than a length and that was from 2 lbs higher thn today. Johnstons have a very good record in selling handicaps with 10 wins from 48 (+28.50 LSP, 1.50 A/E).

Both of DC's wins have come on all weather and he is 0 from 17 on turf but recent placed efforts were all on turf and there is only one turf winner in this field, Aryaah, but he looks clearly held by the selection through some form lines.

He is one of only two in this field that have won in higher class, other one is Creationist but his wins came more than 4 years ago. 7 of Dark Company's 10 placed efforts have come in higher class. He had started handicaps with a placed effort in a nursery off mark of 79, that is long way above his current mark of 55, and even his last win came from OR 71, so he is well handicapped.

One negative I have is that he has to give weight to most of his rivals here, but that is negated somewhat by rider's 7 lbs claim. I admit to knowing very little about the jockey, but he has ridden the horse on 6 of his last 7 runs and rode his first winner yesterday (on his 19th ride).

I rate Doonbeg Farmer, with an interesting jockey booking, as one of the main dangers but his form doesn't look anywhere as strong as Dark Company's.