BEST of the BETS

Bet #86 - 7:00 Beverley - In These Shoes @ 7/2

A few days ago I talked about how I short list using my stats. I have not been getting the wins this month but most times winner has come from the shortlist so I thought I will post my stats-based ratings too, these ratings have nothing to do with class or form, these are simply based on factors that I am using which vary from race to race. I then look at shortlisted horses in more detail and come to a possible selection, mostly these will only be those rate above the race average.

Race rating average = 915 (quality = 48, this number relates to sample size, higher the number more accurate ratings are likely to be)

1. Ring Of Gold (962)
2. Rhoscolyn (944)
3. Ugo Gregory (919)
4. In These Shoes (917)
---------------------------------------
5. Garner (909)
6. On The River (898)
7. Cori Glory (887)
8. Makeen (885)

My selection is only rated 4th best on my stats, but it is just above the average and on form and potential she is rated well above those in front of her who are mostly exposed and some are out of form. In These Shoes has won 2 of her 10 races, latest of those two wins was over this CD (good to soft) in April. That was her seasonal reappearance, it might not have been a strong race as she was sent off 7/4 favourite but she did it well with 1 1/4 & 4 1/4 lengths back to 2nd & 3rd placed horses. Only one winner has come out of that race but there have been a few placed runs, so I will give it a pass as ok form.

Selection was a little disappointing in £31k class 2 handicap at Chester last month, finishing 7/10 having gone off 4th best in market but she has run ok in lower class and also in class 2 at Newmarket last time, admittedly that race was weakened by number of non runners. Back in class 4, I think she has a good chance from 4 lbs higher than last win.

Heavy going is an unknown, but that's the same for all of these. Ugo Gregory is the only one to win on heavy going but that was in a weak class 5 and he has been beaten 5 other times on heavy. Selection has run well on soft going, in a novice race at Thirsk last September, she was narrowly beaten by a newcomer who is now rated 95. 3rd & 4th had both placed 2nd on their previous runs so the form looked solid, and both have gone on to win handicaps from mid 80s and are now rated 91 & 90. That form suggests this filly has another win in her from around her current mark of 83 and she is in right hands to do so.

From others on my shortlist, Rhoscolyn although potentially well handicapped is on a losing run of 24 and he hasn't yet shown any signs that it is about to end. Ugo Gregory, very good course record but up 4 lbs for latest win, has won off higher in past but that was 2 years ago, at age of 7 it will be difficult to recapture that form. Ring Of Gold, I think could run better than his price but for win purposes his mark could still be a bit high especially as he is yet to win on turf.