BEST of the BETS

Bet #83 - 4:55 Ayr - Clarinbridge, e/w @ 15/2 (several bookies paying 4 places)

Clarinbridge won over this CD last time despite a huge drift from 10/1 in morning to 25/1. It was only a classified stakes race but she won well by 1 1/4 from the runner up who was rated 5 lbs higher than her, with a further 4 lengths back to the 3rd. That performance can be marked up a bit as it was her first run after 155 days break and betting suggested she would need the run.

She was only the 4th horse by Buratino to win at age of 4 (from 22 horses), 2 of the other 3 that won as 4yo s won again within next couple of runs (Plastic Paddy & Bay Breeze). She was also only the 5th turf flat winner for her trainer. Tomorrow's Soft going will be different from the Good going she has got both her wins on, but looking at sire's stats his strike rate is much better on Soft than Good, admittedly it's not a big sample size.

She has been raised 9 lbs and is running in a handicap now which may make things a bit tougher, but she competed well off similar marks in Ireland last year when trained by Ado McGuiness so I think she will be ok. And she beat two of tomorrow's rivals last time, Retirement Beckons & Jkr Cobbler. JC was beaten 5 1/2 lengths by the selection, and although he has a 7 lbs pull now it's difficult to see it being enough, so surprising to see he is as short as 4/1 while my selection is nearly double the price.

Another big positive for me is that Noel Kelly has brought her to Ayr again from his base in Northern Ireland. Kelly has a very good record with CD winners from last run as shown below.

6 wins from 11 for +15.85 LSP (A/E 1.69)