BEST of the BETS

Bet #82 - 3:45 York - Get Shirty, 20/80 split on win & 3 places (win @ 28/1, 3 places @ 85/40)

There is a 2/5 favourite in the race so my expectations are not very high but with the rain continuing if conditions get more testing, I believe that will also suit my selection. It is not soft yet, but 3 of Get Shirty's 4 wins have come on soft going including last year's Old Newton Cup from 105 OR.

In last 20 years, only 3 Old Newton Cup winners from previous season have competed in this race and all 3 ran well, Collier Hill 3/14 (6/1) in 2004, Number Theory 3/8 (16/1) in 2013 & Dylan Mouth 1/5 (8/1) in 2018, although its worth mentioning that first two of those were when this race used to be a Listed handicap so those may not be as relevant in terms of quality but are still relevant in regards to suitability of course & distance.

Selection's sire Teofilo does fairly well at York, and his progeny to have run in this race have finished 5/8, 2/10, 3/10 & 1/3, admittedly two of those were favourite. And his dam is by Monsun which is a big stamina influence. Get Shirty's three previous runs at the course include couple of disappointing efforts, including in Yorkshire Cup earlier this season, but he also has a good effort in finishing 5th in last year's Ebor.

Main problem really is that he has shown very little form in 3 runs this season, including when beaten 14 lengths in the Copper Horse, a race he had won last year on good to firm, so quick ground alone cannot be an excuse. Having said that, David O'Meara has only had two runners in this race before, Blue Bajan 4/12 @ 16/1 and 2020 winner Eagles By Day @ 14/1, both those had been beaten 20+ lengths on their previous start.

I know the favourite Hamish is the one to beat on paper, and Get Shirty was 5 lengths 5th behind him in the Cumberland Lodge (G3) last season, a reproduction of that run might be good enough to get in the first 3 today.

One Evening was the other one I considered for places as it's possible to make a case for her despite having the lowest rating, but it's the prospect of testing going that made me decide on Get Shirty.