BEST of the BETS

Finished 3rd, clearly needed the run as the betting also suggested, will do better next time. I would have been better off backing Getawiggleon each way, but that’s how it goes.

LSP: -1.82 (win), -0.13 (place)

I will do the UK trainers later, but for now here is how the top Irish trainers have done at start of flat season with horses returning from a lay off. Data is for all races in March, April & May over last 5 seasons for horses that were returning after an absence of between 5 to 10 months.

1. Willie McCreery - 73 bets, 12 wins, 17 places, LSP = +20.30, A/E = 1.44
2. Mrs John Harrington - 110 bets, 17 wins, 19 places, LSP = +63.58, A/E = 1.42
3. Joseph O’Brien - 55 bets, 7 wins, 16 places, LSP = +43.00, A/E = 1.06
4. Ger Lyons - 123 bets, 20 wins, 22 places, LSP = +15.11, A/E = 1.04
5. Dermot Weld -138 bets, 37 wins, 30 places, LSP = +24.99, A/E = 0.99
6. Aidan O’Brien - 197 bets, 33 wins, 47 places, LSP = -63.15, A/E = 0.72
7. Jim Bolger - 154 bets, 12 wins, 29 places, LSP = -30.60, A/E = 0.61
8. Johnny Murtagh - 53 bets, 2 wins, 9 places, LSP = -43.40, A/E = 0.39
9. Mick Halford - 74 bets, 3 wins, 15 places, LSP = -64.10, A/E = 0.33

Top 5, especially 2, are worth following. Others should be avoided it seems. If you want to know about any other trainer not in list, let me know.

Bet 15

Knight of Malta (2:30 Naas)

LSP: -3.00

Wins - 3/1, 6/1

Seemed to be going ok for some way but then dropped out very quickly, finishing a well beaten 9th.

LSP: -0.82 (win), -0.99 (place)

2:30 Naas - KNIGHT OF MALTA showed enough promise on debut when finishing 5 lengths 4th (16/1) over this c&d in autumn. He is out of Oaks winner Was, so a nice pedigree and should be able to win a maiden like this if fit enough. Aidan O’Brien’s 3 previous runners in this race have finished 1st (7/1), 2nd (7/2), 4th (9/4). At bigger prices, Getawiggleon could run well and has place chances.

Selection - Knight Of Malta @ 15/8

Good luck.

Bet 14

Cappuccino Man (2:40 Downpatrick)

LSP: -2.00

Wins - 3/1, 6/1

2:40 Downpatrick - very open handicap hurdle, I can give a chance to about 8 or 10 of these. Decided on CAPPUCCINO MAN in the end, he is on same mark as when unseating in this race last year, he was sent off 9/2 2nd fav on that occasion but is a much bigger price today. His only win so far has come at this track, in a maiden hurdle over a couple of furlongs further. Bit of a question mark about fitness as he hasn’t run for nearly 5 months, but trainer has an excellent record here. He has had only 10 runners at Downpatrick, 4 of them won (4 different horses, 18/1, 16/1, 11/4 & 5/2) and 3 placed (12/1, 10/1 & 5/1), 2 of the placed horses were returning after a similar absence. Not expecting a lot, will be happy if he can finish in first 4.

Selection - Cappucino Man @ 16/1 (most bookies offering 4 places)

Good luck.

Shortened to 6/5, but only 2nd.

LSP: +0.18 (win), +0.01 (place)

Fakiera
MARY FRANCES (Nap)
Johnny Little Legs
Zero Ten
Trumps Ace
Max Dynamite
Light Brigade

Thanks.

Bet 13

Mary Frances (2:10 Thurles)

LSP: -1.00

Wins - 3/1, 6/1

2:10 Thurles - it’s hard to find any faults with MARY FRANCES, she won well at Punchestown last month and from a rating of 134 here she looks the one to beat. Rising conditional jockey Eoin Walsh, who recently won the Leinster National, is good value and is riding for trainer for only the 2nd time (unplaced on 1st ride but was on outsider). Martin Hassett has a good record here this time of year, won with 3 of the 4 runners at Thurles in March (20/1, 3/1 & 5/1) including with this horse. Main betting rival Jetz, although rated higher over fences, doesn’t win often enough and has never won beyond 2 and half miles. There are no certainties of course, but 2/1 for Mary Frances looks good value to me.

Selection - Mary Frances @ 2/1

Good luck.

Badly outpaced at back, but stayed on very nicely to finish a close 3rd. Encouraging first effort, I am happy with a place (paid 5.6 on Betfair), she clearly wants further now, which isn’t surprising given her dam’s record.

LSP: +1.18 (win), -0.29 (place)

Yes, I could look at top trainers and post their records. Like you say, it might not be totally relevant in this situation, for a couple of reasons, one every horse will be returning from a break, two it will be a different time of year from usual.

Any input from anyone on the following or any other factors will be useful. Should we look at records from last 2/3 seasons, last 5 seasons, or much longer? What should we consider as a lay off, 3 month+ break or 6 month+? Also I think it would be best to look at 3-4 year olds separately from older horses, as I think results could be different with younger horses naturally expected to improve?

Bet 12

Myrcella (5:00 Dundalk)

LSP: 0.00

Wins - 3/1, 6/1

Thanks guys.

5:00 Dundalk - MYRCELLA is the only one in this field having her first run of season, which in this case also means she is the only one yet to race at Dundalk, but she did pretty well on turf last year, placing on 3 of her 8 starts including in a maiden at 50/1 (only time she was ridden by this jockey), and her dam ran well here a couple of times in handicaps finishing a close 5th & 3rd, so I don’t think surface will be a problem. You have to keep in mind that this is a very small stable and they don’t get many winners, they have only had 4 wins (from 178 runs) in last 10 years, 2 of those 4 wins were by this filly’s dam (off marks in low 70s). Dam got better with experience and won at up to 2 miles, but her offspring have done most of their winning around 6/7f so distance should be ok. Only question is whether she has trained on or not and if she is ready first time, you can never be sure of that, maybe market can be a guide but she is drifting at the moment out to 16/1. She has the form though and if she has improved from 2 to 3, she could go close.

Selection - Myrcella @ 16/1 (4 places on offer with some bookies)

Good luck.

Won @ 6/1

LSP: +2.18 (win), -4.66 (place)

Bet 11

Oceanus (2:00 Wetherby)

LSP: -6.00

Wins - 3/1

2:00 Wetherby - OCEANUS has been a bit disappointing with only one placing from 5 (well beaten on other runs) this season, but he has dropped to a low enough mark now (rated 85 now after starting handicaps on 97) and this is a very weak race. Has won on soft and also placed (33/1) in a juvenile hurdle, so I don’t think going is a problem. Dianne Sayer’s record here, especially in handicap hurdles (7 from 53, +7.50 LSP in hc hurdles), is pretty good. One possible worry is the 4 month absence, as trainer’s record after a break is not good - 3.35% strike rate with horses running after a break of 60 days or more compared to 11% when she runs them within 60 days. But this one is still lightly raced, so open to improvement, and is on a low enough mark so I think he can run well. Market could be a good guide regarding fitness.

Selection - Oceanus @ 11/2

Good luck.

Thanks Doubler.

Kalaharry jumped and ran well enough (touched a low of 1.70 in running), but the favourite just kept finding a bit more. Thomson stable couldn’t be in better form, and that’s probably what made the difference. Pair well clear of Manetti, who really struggled with his jumping again, fences at Kelso are not easy so he probably should be avoided unless running at courses with easier fences.

LSP: -5.04 (win), -7.08 (place)

Bet 10

Kalaharry (2:40 Kelso)

LSP: -5.00

Wins - 3/1

Brilliant, TL.