BEST of the BETS

Drifted to 18/1 and finished well down the field.

LSP: +7.16 (win), +1.38 (place)

I will pick a few that haven’t been mentioned yet.

1-5 : Saeed bin Suroor
6-10 : Mark Johnston
11-15 : Mick Channon
16-20 : Tim Easterby

On a good run, KJ, hope it continues today.

Thanks Rodeo.

2:00 Gowran Park - this looks a decent 3yo maiden, but also a tricky one. The two at top of betting have official ratings of 90 (Jungle Cove) and 84 (Maker Of Kings), but both of them had quite a few runs at 2 so could be vulnerable if there is an above average type among the less exposed runners. I wouldn’t put anyone off Jungle Cove though as the market is strongly suggesting that he is expected to go well today and he has a good draw unlike his main market rivals. But I am looking for an each way option, Emiyn is one possibility, he was beaten under 2 lengths in 5th behind Russian Emperor (who went close in the Derrinstown trial on Monday) at Naas last time, he could easily find enough improvement to be involved but market is not speaking positively at the moment. I have gone for one at a bigger price, BLIGH (11/1) is a risky bet as he does need to improve a fair bit on his 2yo form. He ran ok on debut when beaten 7 lengths in midfield in the Curragh maiden won by Wichita. He didn’t build on it though and was a bit disappointing here next time. I feel he will be suited by this quicker going though and is open to improvement. Joseph O’Brien has a very good record here at his local track, with 3 year olds in maidens here he is 3 from 21 (7 others placed), that is pretty good when you consider that 15 of the 21 started at double figure prices. There are a couple of negatives too, one the draw, two the stable form - they are 0 from 26 (only 2 placed) since the restart. So not confident, and I will be happy if he can finish in first 3 in this tricky race.

Selection - Bligh @ 11/1

Good luck.

Green and too far off the pace, but got the hang of it late on to stay on nicely into 3rd. Very small profit if backed each way at early price and almost money back at BfSP (2.01 place)

LSP: +8.16 (win), +2.38 (place)

Nice placer, Joe.

Thanks everyone.

5:00 Kempton - almost no form to go on, Balavad is the only one with experience having finished 10th of 12 over 6 furlongs here last week, although I think he will improve on that he was beaten too far back to be considered for a win. Mark Johnston has made a flying start with his 2 year olds with 5 winners already, so I respect his runner Nigh Moment but I feel it is too short a price at 5/4 so I am happy to oppose him. My selection is ROMMEL (13/2), Mick Channon gets plenty of 2yo winners this time of year. He hasn’t had a winner so far this season but of his 4 runners two were big priced outsiders, the 2 at single figure prices both made the frame, including one that was backed from 10/1 to 4/1 before finishing 3rd yesterday. This one has Charles Bishop booked, Bishop shows an overall profit when riding Channon’s 2yo newcomers (14 from 108, +3 LSP) but gets much better when they are fancied, 11 from 37 (12 others placed) with +19 LSP with those priced under 10/1, so strength in betting will be a good sign. Selection’s pedigree is not bad, first foal of an unraced half-sister to several winners including couple of black types. So there are enough positives there to hope for a good run.

Selection - Rommel @ 13/2

Good luck.

Going well, KJ.

Thanks, Swerver. Nice to get a good priced winner, Cormorant just kept finding enough to see off the favourite. 14.66 win, 4.74 place

LSP: +9.16 (win), +1.42 (place)

Derrinstown Derby Trial (Group 3) - 2:00 Leopardstown - probably the weakest renewal of this race in recent years, none of these have won a stakes race yet and a top rating of just 106, Iberia’s 2nd in Killavullan Stakes (Group 3) probably the best form on offer. He should improve for step up in trip and is one of the possibles. The favourite Russian Emperor is the only one with a run this season, he won a maiden at Naas, it was bit of a bunch finish and the 4th horse was only rated 75 so the form is nothing special in context of this race. He was very weak in betting though drifting from evens out to 2/1 which suggests he would have needed the run and should improve from it, but I still can’t back it at 11/8 today. Instead I have taken a chance on outsider of the 3 Aidan O’Brien runners, CORMORANT (11/1). He is only rated 95, so does need to improve but this is not the strongest Group 3. He is the only one of these to have won on good to firm (over 1 mile, narrowly beating Agitare), and the only one to have run over this far (finishing 2nd behind a stablemate that was odds on). He is the outsider of the field so not expecting much, but going and distance should suit.

Selection - Cormorant @ 11/1

Good luck.

Very nice, well done Joe.

Very disappointing. Favourite won very impressively again despite the big drift.

LSP: -3.82 (win), -2.13 (place)

Thanks KJ.

Lost a bit of discipline since the restart, so bringing back this thread to try and stick to one bet a day.

Woodlands Stakes (Listed) - 5:35 Naas - Sceptical has improved with every run and bolted up in a handicap from mark of 101 last time, and is being talked up as a potential Group 1 horse. Impressive as he has been, he is yet to race away from Dundalk, so I am not taking a short price as he still has to prove himself on turf. SERGEI PROKOFIEV is not the most consistent but is proven at this level with one Group 3 and two Listed wins to his name. Won first time out last season, also at 5 and half furlongs, and I think he should run well today too. Buffer Zone is another one that goes well fresh having won first time out for last two seasons, he won a couple of big handicaps at Curragh last season and he was next on my short list. Forever In Dreams is another with good form having run above expectation in couple of Group 1s last season. So in conclusion, it looks a good race but at the prices Sergei Prokofiev is my choice, hopefully he will run well.

Selection - Sergei Prokofiev @ 6/1

Good luck.

Well done KJ

Well done TL

Typical, picked the wrong one of the two.

Starcat only 7th, Major Jumbo ran ok for 3rd, but Punctuation disappointingly unplaced, so a loss on the day.

Tried a long shot each way on Starcat @ 40/1.

Great selection Mugz, very well done.

Yes, mine made up ground but had too much to do, can’t do that against a top class horse.