BEST of the BETS

Bet 5

1:16 Sedgefield - 3m 2 1/2f Handicap Chase (4, 0-110, good)

3 of these ran over this c&d 19 days ago, Nortonthorpelegend finished 3rd (beaten 7 lengths), Skyhill was 6th (beaten 30 lengths), Late Date pulled up. Nortonthorpelegend, previous winner of this race (won in 2016), has good chance of going close as last race looked bit more competitive than this, and Brian Hughes’ record with his last 6 rides in this race (213211) is quite impressive, but at around 13/8 he is way too short in betting so not for me. Late Date has won 3 times over c&d but he only seems to win in small fields that he can dominate, that is unlikely to happen today.

So out of these 3, Skyhill is the one for me, it was his first run of season so may have needed it. He was quite progressive last season, winning 4 times, and he is only 7 and only had 6 chase runs so there may still be bit more improvement. Interesting stat about trainer Alison Hamilton, since the 2nd half of 2013 she has had only 15 winners, 14 (from 156 runners) of these have been ridden by one of her nephews (Tom and Jamie), compared to just 1 winner from 111 runners when ridden by a different jockey. That doesn’t mean he is going to win today but it does suggest that maybe he wasn’t fancied last time as Jamie wasn’t on it.

The Late Legend is another one that isn’t fully exposed yet (only had 6 runs over fences) though he was well beaten at Huntingdon last time, he could have a chance if you can forgive that run. Race trends favour these two too, 6 to 8 year olds have won 10 of 12 runnings of this race from 66 runners, compared to 2 wins from 44 for those aged 9+, and 9 of the 12 runnings have been won by first 3 in betting. Having said that, we have to careful with age stats as this year 8 of the 10 runners are aged 9+.

Scoop The Pot hasn’t won for nearly two years but he is potentially well handicapped having come down a lot in weights, so maybe worth keeping an eye in market. It’s difficult to make a case for most of the others.

It’s quite a tricky race so I have taken a cautious approach with my bets by going each way as well as having a saver.

Bets
Skyhill, 0.4 pt e/w @ 9/1
The Late Legend, 0.2 pt win @ 7/2

Good luck.

Thanks guys. Well done with your winner DFM, wonder if we will pick same race again.

Good run from Kakamora (SP 11/1), no match for the winner but I am happy with a little profit.

Staked = 4
Returns = 5.10
P/L = +1.10

12:25 Ludlow - 2 mile maiden hurdle (class 4, good to soft)

Eyes are first drawn towards Tom Dascombe and Finoah, Dascombe does not have many runners over jumps, indeed the last time he ran one over jumps was back in 2009, more than 11 years ago. 2 of his first 3 winners when he started his training career in early 2006 actually came here at Ludlow (both wins were with same horse), he has never had another runner here, so has his 100% strike rate at Ludlow to maintain. Finoah is one of 3 that have been rated in 80s and 90s on the flat (Lissitzky and Just The Man are other two). As this looks quite a good race, I think hurdling experience will be important, but keep an eye on betting for Finoah anyway because it’s such a rare jumps runner for the trainer. Out of these flat racers, only Just The Man has run over hurdles, he placed 3rd on hurdling debut but was well behind the front two and that didn’t look a particularly strong race so I think he needs to improve a fair bit but it’s not impossible.

Long Stay is the pick of hurdling form, he finished 2nd on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh, that looks strong form as there were two previous hurdles winners in there that finished 4th & 5th (more than 15 lengths behind Long Stay, 5th rated 108). So, Long Stay has to be thereabouts, he could win it but is a silly price at 4/6 as this is not such an easy race with some potentially good horses in there on ground softer than what he has raced on so far. So I am going to look for some value against him.

The one that has potential to do well is Kakamora, he was beaten 40+ lengths when last of 6 finishers on his rules debut at Exeter, but the fact that he was priced up as clear 2nd favourite at one stage against triple bumper winner Ask A Honey Bee tells me that he is well thought of. He drifted back out to 11/2 before the off and was beaten a long way from home. Maybe going was too quick for him, pedigree suggests softer going will suit better, and it was a hot race anyway. He represents top connections, owned by Tim Syder, who bought him for £105,000 after his point to point win last year. Pedigree is quite nice too, dam half-sister to Grade 1 winning hurdler Bitofapuzzle and Listed hurdles winner Golden Gael. There is enough there to suggest that he will win races at some stage of his career, I am hoping he will improve enough from his debut to run well today.

Bet
Kakamora, 0.5 pt each way @ 10/1

Good luck.

Thanks DFM.

Staked = 3
Returns = 3.5
P/L = +0.5

I hadn’t seen that, DFM, good luck with Party Central. I see it as the main danger, especially as Elliott has won this twice in last 4 years, and it’s strong in betting.

Fair point, Joe. CV was giving 5 lbs (incl. jockey claim) to PS though, PS in turn was giving 4 lbs (age allowance) to MQ. I agree it’s a hard race, due to fitness question imo. I would have felt confident if CV had a run this season.

Bet 3

3:30 Navan - Mares Irish National Hunt Flat Race (Listed), 2 miles (soft)

9 of the 11 runnings of this have been won by first two in betting, and again the top three look the ones to concentrate on. Form lines through Phillapa Sue and Fame And Joy/Royal Kahala clearly favour Castra Vetera over the two unbeaten fillies, Castra Vetera had beaten Phillapa Sue by over 3 lengths while giving weight to her, who then finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Mare Quimby. Other form line is through Fame And Joy who was beaten 11 lengths by Party Central, and then was beaten by even bigger distance by Royal Kahala who herself had been beaten by Castra Vetera. Of course, both Mare Quimby and Party Central are open to improvement after just one run.

The bumper that Castra Vetera won under a penalty at Naas is usually a strong one. In past it has been won by Shattered Love (winner of 2 Grade 1s) and Gypsy Island (Grade 3 winner), and Castra Vetera’s sister Mystic Theatre finished 2nd in that race in 2017 before going on to win at up to Listed level over hurdles. So I have no doubt about Castra Vetera’s form credentials, only question is if she is fully tuned up for this first run since March.

Race trends also favour Castra Vetera. Mares (5yo+) have 8 wins in this race from 90 runners, and fillies (4yo) only 3 wins from 63 runners. Interestingly, in the years when the 4yos won there were no winning mares in the line up. Also, mares carrying double penalties, as Castra Vetera is doing, have a very good record with 5 wins from just 12 runners (+6.08 LSP). But again, none of them were returning from a break so it all comes down to fitness for me. It’s a risk, but I am prepared to take that risk as I feel if she is 100% then she is the one to beat. Between Mare Quimby and Party Central, I see the latter as a bigger danger unless they go really fast (which I don’t think will happen) which will then favour MQ who has a lot of stamina in her pedigree.

Only two others that could be interesting are Lunar Display who returns to Flat after falling in a good hurdles race last time, and Angels Dawn who has some fair form in bumpers and looks strong in betting today.

Bet
Castra Vetera, 1 pt win @ 5/2

Good luck.

Hi Bet2win, sent you email.

I thought we had this one, Do Your Job gets beaten after going 1.04 in running, he simply got outstayed by the winner in testing conditions.

Staked = 2
Returns = 0
P/L = -2

Bet 17

Do Your Job (12:10 Haydock)

LSP: -7.61

Wins: 4/9, 8/11, 4/7, 5/4, 2/5

Thanks.

2nd & 3rd. Not the start I was hoping for, but I thought Royal Pretender ran well.

Staked = 1
Returns = 0
P/L = -1

Bet 2

12:10 Haydock - Newton Novices Hurdle (Listed), 1 mile 7 1/2 furlongs

Competitive race as 4 of the remaining 6 runners are last time out winners. It’s probably unwise to go against Paul Nicholls the way his horses are running at the moment, but I have opposed Flic Ou Voyou in his bid for a 4-timer. Although he has been winning easily, it’s hard to know what he has beaten and I feel this is the first time he will be really tested and could also get taken on for the lead by Do Your Job. To me, Do Your Job’s last run at Ayr looks the strongest form on offer, although his main rival Curlew Hill failed to give his running, the runner up Cadzand who was beaten nearly 10 lengths has come out and won easily next time. In 3rd & 4th were bumper winners from Nicky Richards and Nicholls yards that were beaten 14 & 37 lengths respectively. Other two lto winners Severance and Llandinabo Lad also won easily on their hurdling debuts and could improve, but Llandinabo Lad’s race didn’t have much depth to it. Severance did better, but his win was on heavy and I am always cautious about winning margins on heavy going.

At big prices, Frimeur De Lancray is interesting. Sue Smith’s only previous runner in this race was Midnight Shadow, who went very close to winning this in 2017 @ 4/1. Interestingly, FdL made his debut in same race that Midnight Shadow had won on his hurdling debut, FdL could finish only 5th (beaten 16 lengths) so probably not in same league but he should still be able to win some races. Fell at the last when a close 3rd on next start, first two were rated 145 & 138, so that was a good run. Trainer’s runners often need the run, that’s what stops me being confident about him today but he could still run better than his price (no prices available for extra place markets on Bet365 yet, could be worth checking if they are doing 4 places). Pulled out of novice hurdle at Catterick yesterday, reason given was the going.

Bets
Do Your Job, 0.8 pt win @ 15/8
Frimeur De Lancray, 0.2 pt to finish in first 3 @ 9/2

Good luck.

Paul Nicholls again. My one unplaced, but I was right about the favourite Paris Dixie. One I was watching was Cafe Pushkin, and I would say he is the one to note for future, possibly next year when he goes chasing. He stayed on very well to finish 4th.

Joe, you missed the best of Aol message board. At its peak it was the best and most active forum. I used to run competitions on there, and we regularly had 50+ people contesting, one year we had 80 people (no there weren’t any multi IDs lol) in Cheltenham competition, I don’t know how I scored it. Unfortunately, in the last one year of it there was lot of fighting that ruined it and drove most of the good people away so in the end everyone was happy that message boards were closed. I remember so many names from there, I know some are here but many more that we never heard from again. It was a good time, can never go back to that.

I agree forums are dying, I think it’s a lot to do with how the way people bet has changed. I know my own betting has changed a lot over the years. Many people are moving into trading or laying from usual betting. And younger people are not getting into betting on horse racing like they used to.

If market is any guide then I might have done my money already, it continues to drift on the exchange. Market makes it all about the favourite. Only other one being backed is Etat Major Aulmes from big prices, personally I can’t see why, it’s only rated 102 and has to give weight to everyone else, fitness is the only advantage it has over others.

Bet 16

Mr Grey Sky (1:40 Ffos Las)

LSP: -6.61

Wins: 4/9, 8/11, 4/7, 5/4, 2/5

Well done Joe.

Good luck, Joe. I am on the favourite, so you don’t have to worry about that one as I have had a complete nightmare today, all the ones I backed lost and the ones I laid won, just one of those days.

Couldn’t watch the race, but looks like he won easy. Followed you on this one, thank you and well done.

Rikoboy
Rumble B
Champagne Terri
Happygolucky
GETARIVER (Nap)
Glimpse Of Gold
True Glory

Thanks.

Bet 15

Continental (6:45 Newcastle)

LSP: -5.61

Wins: 4/9, 8/11, 4/7, 5/4, 2/5