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RP Cheltenham Stable Tour - Willie Mullins

There are 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival and right now Willie Mullins is responsible for the favourite in 13 of them.

Yes, you read it right, 13. Two on day one, five on day two, two on day three, and four on day four. Two are currently odds-on and five are shorter than 2-1. He has been the leading trainer at the festival seven times since 2011 and is 1-3 with Betfair Sportsbook to claim title number eight next month.

If the ante-post markets are anything to go by, Mullins' best return of eight winners in 2015 could be surpassed.

As usual, Mullins kickstarts the festival with a hot favourite in the Supreme. The honour falls to Appreciate It this time as last year's Weatherbys Champion Bumper runner-up bids to emulate Tourist Attraction (1995), Ebaziyan (2007), Champagne Fever (2013), Vautour (2014), Douvan (2015) and Klassical Dream (2019).

Sharjah leads the Champion Hurdle squad into battle, attempting to go one better than last year while Concertista has been all the rage for weeks now in the mares' hurdle.

Gaillard Du Mesnil was glorious at Leopardstown and immediately promoted to Ballymore favourite. Albert Bartlett winner Monkfish has taken to fences superbly and is the Irish banker for so many in the newly-named Brown Advisory Novices' Chase.

The only championship race Mullins has yet to win is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. He is hoping that sentence will never be said again after March 17. Chacun Pour Soi has been flawless so far this season and, provided there are no last-minute issues like 12 months ago, it will take something special to beat him.

Kilcruit looked awesome at Leopardstown and heads to the Champion Bumper with a big reputation. Wednesday will make or break Mullins' week you sense.

Allaho (Ryanair) and Hook Up (Mares Novices' Hurdle) top two of the markets on Thursday, while Stattler (Albert Bartlett), Elimay (Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase) and Billaway (Hunters' Chase) are three of his Friday favourites.

That leaves us with Al Boum Photo – the horse who is just under seven minutes away from emulating Best Mate and Arkle. The tried and tested Tramore route has been taken to the WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup as he seeks a stunning hat-trick and Mullins has him right where he wants him.

We haven't even mentioned Energumene or Min yet. The firepower is frightening.

Al Boum Photo
WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
The champ is in great order. I was initially a bit disappointed leaving the stand at Tramore on New Year's Day, but when I got back home and put all the elements together I was much happier with the performance. He hadn't run in the autumn because Punchestown was cancelled and he'd gone out to grass much earlier than others so he was more backward than I thought he would be. He seems to be in great order and I'm very happy with where I have him at this stage with a few weeks to go.

Allaho
Ryanair Chase
He's coming along nicely now. He ran a big race in the RSA last year and his Thurles win was much more like it. We rode him positively and he answered every call Paul [Townend] gave him. He's entered in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran but I think we might give that a miss and bring him straight to Cheltenham for the Ryanair. He might just have enough done.

Appreciate It
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
He's come through all his trials very well. I have to be honest, he's surprised me with how much speed he's shown. That said, you need to stay very well in the Supreme and he does stay the trip very well. It's hard to win the Supreme with just a speed horse. He's come out of his Leopardstown win in very good form and we won't be doing a whole lot with him between now and March 16. He's where I want him to be.

Asterion Forlonge
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, Marsh Novices' Chase
Things just haven't gone his way since he won his beginners' chase at Punchestown. I'm not sure whether he will travel to Cheltenham now, we might wait until Fairyhouse instead.

Bacardys
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
He's all set to head over for his sixth festival. He's run well in the last three Stayers' Hurdles and he'll have another go in it.

Bachasson
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
He's been in terrific form this season, winning all three starts. He's entered in the Stayers' Hurdle but his record at Cheltenham isn't great so I'm not sure whether I want to bring him over or not. It might be wiser to keep him at home for something here.

Blackbow
Sporting Life Arkle, Marsh Novices' Chase
He ran much better last time behind Energumene at Leopardstown and we might let him take his chance in the Arkle.

Billaway
St James's Place Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase
He was second in it last year but I thought his lack of jumping experience caught him out. He knows a lot more about his trade now and he must have a big chance.

Blue Lord
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
I'm not sure which race he'll run in yet but, at the moment, I'm probably leaning towards the Supreme. When he won his maiden hurdle at Punchestown he looked like he needed 2m4f. Then when we ran him over that trip in the Grade 1 at Naas it looked like he wanted two miles. I thought he ran very well behind Appreciate It over two miles at Leopardstown and he's progressing nicely.

Brandy Love
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
I know she was favourite at Leopardstown and didn't win, but she didn't run badly and travelled well for a long way. She's a nice mare and I wouldn't be afraid to let her take her chance.

Brooklynn Glory
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
I thought she ran a fine race in defeat at Leopardstown. She deserves to take her chance in another top-class race.

Chacun Pour Soi
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
From day one at home he told us he was well above average, certainly not a Joe Soap. He's had a very good preparation for the Champion Chase this season. Everything has gone smoothly and we're keeping our fingers and toes crossed that he gets to Cheltenham in one piece and lines up at the start. He's been great since Leopardstown.

Colreevy
Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase
She's taken really well to fences and you'd have to say her form looks good enough to go to Cheltenham. There are a few things we need to take into consideration and we'll wait until closer to the time to decide whether she travels over or not. I've been thrilled with her all season.

Concertista
Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle
It took her an awful long time to come to hand last season and she hadn't even won a race for me before she landed the mares' novice hurdle at the festival. Thankfully, things have been a bit different this season and she's won both her starts impressively. We know she handles the track and she goes there with a major shout.

Elimay
Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase
She put in a fine performance at Naas last Saturday week and that should sharpen her up for the Mares' Chase. She's put two really good runs back to back now and everything seems to be in place for a big run.

Energumene
Sporting Life Arkle
We had a fair idea he was going to make a decent chaser when we bought him but what he's done has been a pleasant surprise. He's been flawless. He jumps and he stays and he seems to be improving with every run over fences so he goes to the Arkle as a live candidate.

Franco De Port
Sporting Life Arkle
He chased home Energumene at Leopardstown and he's a good horse to have on your side in the Arkle because he's guaranteed to stay if the conditions are testing.

French Aseel
JCB Triumph Hurdle
He was very impressive at Christmas, winning his maiden hurdle by a long way. He had a lot of experience on the Flat but his lack of jumping experience would obviously be a worry. With that in mind, we've done a huge amount of schooling with him and he's been very good. He's a horse who is going to keep improving with age.

Frere Tuck
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
He's in the Ballymore but also in the Michael Purcell at Thurles on Thursday. I'd imagine the Michael Purcell is the favourite at the moment.

Gaillard Du Mesnil
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
He's doing everything right. He jumps and stays and looks to have all the credentials you need to be very competitive in a Ballymore. I'd be very hopeful that he will be involved in the business end of it.

Gauloise
Daylesford Mares' Novices' Hurdle
She stayed on quite well to be third at Fairyhouse, but I suppose I was a little disappointed. She'll take her chance at Cheltenham and hopefully she can step up on what she showed at Fairyhouse.

Ganapathi
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
I ran him over two mile six furlongs at Leopardstown the other day to get more racecourse experience into him. It's more than likely he will run in the Supreme I would say.

Glens Of Antrim
Daylesford Mares' Novices' Hurdle
I know she was beaten at Naas but I thought she ran a cracker. She was 33 lengths clear of the third there and I think coming back in trip for the mares' novice hurdle will suit her. She's a lovely mare.

Grangee
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
She deserves to take her chance after what she did at Leopardstown. She hit the line hard there and her 7lb allowance will make her very competitive.

James Du Berlais
Unibet Champion Hurdle
He was among the top four-year-olds in France last season. Simon Munir and Isaac Souede bought him as a novice chaser rather than a hurdler, but we're going to have a crack at the Champion Hurdle with him. It's a case of the Champion Hurdle or the Stayers' and I think the Stayers' would be too much of an ask for a five-year-old. I'd be hoping he can pick up a share of the prize-money too, he's a nice horse. He's goes straight there.

Janidil
Marsh Novices' Chase
He's been a little disappointing this season and certainly hasn't come forward as we would have liked over fences. We thought he'd be even better over fences than he was over hurdles but it hasn't worked out that way so far. He also has the option of the Arkle but the Marsh would look to be the race for him.

Kemboy
Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle, WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
No decision has been made yet. His record over fences at Cheltenham is a little bit average, so the Stayers' is not out of the question and skipping Cheltenham and going straight to Aintree is another option. We know he likes it there. We'll decide nearer the time.

Kilcruit
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Visually he couldn't have been any more impressive at Leopardstown. Whether that was down to the way the race was run or because of his raw ability I'm not quite sure. Cheltenham is a similar sort of track to Leopardstown in that it's left-handed and up a hill at the finish and I'm hoping he can repeat his Leopardstown performance there.

Lord Royal
National Hunt Challenge Cup
He was originally disappointing over fences, especially since he jumps so well, but there were more encouraging signs at Navan last time. We were very gentle with him there and he finished out his race much better. He's qualified for the National Hunt Chase now and that Navan runs puts him right back in the picture.

Melon
Ryanair Chase, WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
He just didn't enjoy being held up in the Irish Gold Cup at all. Wherever he goes – whether it's the Ryanair or the Gold Cup – he certainly won't be doing that again. He enjoyed being ridden positively in the Marsh and we might think about doing something similar in the Ryanair. He always seems to reserve his best for Cheltenham so hopefully that's the case again this year.

Monkfish
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
He's been a natural over fences from day one and his performances this season have been flawless. He coped very well with the drop in trip at Leopardstown in the Flogas, and we know he stays too. He's going to carry an awful lot of Irish hopes going to Cheltenham –including mine.

Min
Ryanair Chase
Of course he was disappointing at Leopardstown but I'm not too concerned about that. We all have our off days and he does too. He had an off day in the Champion Chase a few years ago as well. He won the Ryanair last year and I have no doubt he will be a force to be reckoned with in the race again. He likes to get on with it and that's the way we'll ride him.

N'Golo
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
He's been disappointing lately and would need the ground to really dry out for us to think about bringing him over for something.

Pont Aval
Daylesford Mares' Novices' Hurdle
She couldn't have won any easier at Punchestown and she could have booked her ticket to Cheltenham on the back of that. She's improving all the time.

Ramillies
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
I like this horse and I even told Patrick [Mullins] to ride him instead of Kilcruit at Leopardstown. He didn't listen to me but I thought he actually ran a cracker and feel there could be a lot of improvement to come from him.

Saint Roi
Unibet Champion Hurdle
You'd have to say he's been a little disappointing. He came alive when he got to Cheltenham last year in the County Hurdle and hopefully he can do something similar this year. He has to improve a lot, though.

Saint Sam
JCB Triumph Hurdle, Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
The plan all along was to go for the Triumph Hurdle with him, but he hasn't troubled the top horses in the division thus far so the Boodles could be an option.

Saldier
Unibet Champion Hurdle
He was disappointing at Leopardstown, but he's a very good horse on his day. He'll go to the rescheduled Red Mills at Gowran Park and we'll make a decision with regard to Cheltenham after that.

Sharjah
Unibet Champion Hurdle
He's a funny horse in that he's run really poorly in the Irish Champion Hurdle for two years in a row now and I don't really know why. Maybe it just comes up too soon after Christmas. It didn't stop him from running a big race in last year's Champion Hurdle and I'm hoping it won't this year either. We know he goes well at Cheltenham and I'd like to think he's got a good each-way chance. He's been perfectly fine since Leopardstown.

Stattler
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
He ran a cracker behind Gaillard Du Mesnil at Leopardstown and that run should put him right for the Albert Bartlett. He jumps and stays so he looks an ideal candidate for the race to me anyway.

Youmdor
JCB Triumph Hurdle
He had a very nasty fall at Fairyhouse when he looked set to win and I think we just ran him back too quickly at Leopardstown. He's much better than that.

last two bets 20/1 and 8/1 winner :heart:

David C Griffiths
Leo Minor
Thu 11th Feb 2021
19:00, Newcastle
DEC Odds: 36 (Betfair Exc)
Not been running too badly of late, despite not winning. Dropped another pound here will help though and Mollie continues in the saddle to claim 7lbs. Step up to 6f will suit and the first-time blinkers are on today to try and help eke out a bit more. Has also run well at the track in the past - a bit more needed, but small e/w chance based on the extra furlong and dropping mark.

yes very easy winner well done.

en.calameo.com/read/0003624656b74d82ef7ec?authid=kQlybS8ERnBt


jumpshorsestofollow.blogspot.com/

decent reading about doping in Ireland

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?15691-Tips-(from-paid-guessers)/page4

en.calameo.com/read/0003624656b74d82ef7ec?authid=kQlybS8ERnBt


jumpshorsestofollow.blogspot.com/

some good news on there for tomorrow

40/1 shot up now

four bets up now

bet up

4.15 Durdle door 2pts win 11/2 1st :wink:

another bet up

Saturday 7.20

Lady of aran 2pts e/w 12/1


Kempton Saturday…
7.20 Lady of Arran currently 14/1
The deeper I look into this race the more I like Lady of Aran, I know backing a filly can be tricky but her course form is nothing short of amazing. At 14s she is the outsider of the field and in my opinion is the one to be on e/w.
Lady of Aran is currently rated 82. Georgia Dobie rides and takes off 5lb reducing that to 77. She has ridden the horse four times resulting in form figures of 9441 The ninth finishing position was in a 12 runner listed race at Newmarket where she was only beaten 8 and 1/4L. The race was run on soft ground which would not have suited Lady of Aran.

Let’s have a close look at her form
Lifetime form 4212/7934201032/2937441958-
Allweather form 421223229358
Kempton 7f form 122323
That’s six races at Kempton, winning one and 2nd or 3rd in the other five races never beaten further than two length’s in any of them. I mentioned the jockeys 5LB claim as it takes the fillies mark to 77. Lady of Aran has raced at Kempton twice when rated under 80 resulting in form figures of 22 beaten a shd and a hd

Sire
Sir Prancealot 683 /66 wins (9.66%) 199 places 29.14%)


Jockey Georgia Dobie has not got a great win record at the track 147/19 (12.93%) however 44 places (29.93%) is decent indeed.
Trainer Charlie Fellows last five year record at Kempton is 173/18 (10.90%) and 56 places (32.37%) is a decent strike rate .
trainer is a co owner, keep an eye on the betting n way should this be 14/1

Timeform’s conclusion for tomorrows race…….C&D winner but didn't enjoy the rub of the green when last of 8 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.6f, 25/1) 20 days ago. Not ruled out. *** 3 stars


Comments from trainer Charlie Fellows

Lady of Aran
Sat 16th Jan 2021
19:20, Kempton Park
DEC Odds: 8 (Betfair Exc)



Has been below par recently but there have been numerous excuses. Today's conditions are much more like it as she loves the track and 7f is perfect. Georgia rides her beautifully too so hopefully we will see the real filly today.

Currently 13/2 best price

one in from the guesser on that other site :wink:

todays up

one up now

Ballydine 12s everywhere, I suppose lots following cause they are free but hey, very early days.

THREE BETS UP THERE TODAY WITH WRITE UP

1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1
3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1
4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1

For anyone who really likes a return Skybet paying 14.46/1 for the three to be placed, 4 places first race, 6 places second race and three places last race.

Good luck for today we will need it.

bet up for tomorrow, getting lashed out of it already 33/1 laddies