• Shammers
    54
    Feb nearly here we still sit proudly top of the pile with 17 games to go what do we need in our final push?
    Analysis of the Championship promotion chase since the 1995-96 season. Which team made the play-offs with just 68 points? And who amassed 90 points but failed to earn promotion?


    tpi7ocf78xocdytf.png

    We have touched and talked about this on this in previous threads but what exactly now do we have to do
    We currently sit on 57 Points with 51 Points still to play for.

    PLAYOFFS

    So lets take this step by step first objective is to grab that 6th place
    on average teams that finish with 74 Points will take that last remaining playoff slot.
    We currently sit 17 points away from that average stat.
    I still think the 6th slot will be lower this season maybe not as low as 68 in which Leicester nabbed in 2013 but i will have a punt at around 70-71 so I'm personally thinking 14-17 points is the target but 74 to be certain to nail that final slot.
    Surely this now is well in our reach we will have to have an almighty collapse now not to pick up one of the 4 slots.

    TOP TWO
    I honestly don't care if we were to finish 1st or 2nd all i want is to see us go up if that's 2nd place so be it i wouldn't lose sleep of us not being champions we both get the same prize.
    so I will do the average off 2nd place.
    87 Points is the target so another 30 Points needed from 51
    excluding draws thats 10 wins from our last 17 games not far away from win one lose one so basically all we have to do now is be fairly consistent even if we win one every two games we won't be far away but thats being right on the knuckle.
    All games are important but our Home games are very important we have 9 left we have to take as many pts as we can from them.

    SO IN A NUTSHELL
    14-17 Points from 51 Points for the Playoffs.
    30 Points from 51 Points] for Automatic Promotion



    Of course Pts may be lower than stated but on average from 95/96 season these are the figures everyone should be looking at for getting out of the hardest league in the world.
  • Shammers
    54
    TEAMS LEFT TO PLAY
    Forget everyone else on who they play or who they beat or drop points too. Destiny is in our own hands if we do our business nothing else matters.


    1.HOME: Norwich City
    2.HOME: Swansea
    3.HOME: Bolton
    4.HOME: West Brom
    5.HOME: Sheff Utd
    6.HOME: Millwall
    7.HOME: Sheff Wed
    8.HOME: Wigan
    9.HOME: Aston Villa

    1:AWAY: Middlesbrough
    2:AWAY: QPR
    3.AWAY: Bristol City
    4.AWAY : Reading
    5.AWAY: Birmingham
    6.AWAY: Preston
    7.AWAY: Brentford
    8.AWAY: Ipswich
  • reynard kevin
    39
    great report johnny
    looking quickly i see the matches vs norwich ( they are hanging in there) west brom + sheff utd at home
    with boro + brentford (always hard to beat at griffin park) away as real problem games ?
    but with this division who knows?
    if we win next week we will have reached our points total for last year with still 16 games to go.
    also our never say die attitude after going behind first has got us 17 points this season compared to just 6 points over all of last season.
  • Shammers
    54
    Totally understand what you say Kev some tough games in there but with 17 games to go most of the chasers have similar games to play every team has 17 of the 23 still to play some 18.
    What we have to our advantage we have the points on the board everyone else has to improve on what they have done so far so no matter how well they have played up to now they all have to take another step up that ladder again.
    I try not to worry or follow the other teams at the moment we are in a position to let them worry about us.
    Seasons back i had papers and papers of these have these to play and them have them it just waffled my brain lol.
    All i say to myself now is every two games in a row we win it pulls us closer to our goal. even if we win two and lose or draw the next we are still on course.
    As long as we don't lose two in a row I'm happy not to even follow other games because i know everything is going to plan.
    it also saves years on my beating heart worrying about other challengers scoring in the last minute or late goals.
  • reynard kevin
    39
    we have points in the bag playing catch up is never easy in this league other teams can look at future matches and dream if we win this or that match we can catch up it never works out as easy as that in the real world?
    we have a real head start on the pack if we beat norwich on saturday we will have 6 point lead on them
    that will give us some welcome breathing space.
    we just have to keep the results coming as we are at the moment and we will see our dreams fulfilled again after 15 years away.
  • Shammers
    54
    Fingers crossed mate.
    but we are Leeds United we never do anything easy let's hope things are ready for change.

    Lets hope its the season of the LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

    Prem Liverpool currently 1st
    Champ Leeds currently 1st
    Div 1 Luton currently 1st
    Div 2 Lincoln currently 1st
    Nat L Leyton Orient currently 1st

    Now that would be a good bet at start of season if your fav letter was L. LOL.
  • Mugz
    172
    RUN IN ANALYSIS

    Based on PPG of future opponents, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Derby have the best run in of the top 10 teams.

    Leeds play 7 v top half teams (5 at home) and 10 v bottom half teams. If you look at the last 5-8 games we have to be very happy with those games if we are still top 2.
  • Shammers
    54
    Lets keep a little run down on the points needed.
    Based on the Championship's History the average needed for promotion/Playoffs
    This could be lower but these numbers are gareenteed

    PLAYOFFS

    74 Points needed
    61 Points Gained 13 Needed
    42 Points Still Available

    AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

    87 Points Needed
    61 Points Gained 26 Points Needed
    42 Points Still Available
  • Mugz
    172
    RUN IN ANALYSIS

    Points gained in reverse fixture v future opponents

    Leeds - 30
    Norwich - 35
    Sheff Utd - 20
    WBA - 33 (played 1 less fixture)
  • El Poco Loco
    20
    Any team that has reached 90 points has got automatic promotion. So 90 has always been the magic number of points to attain.
    However due to the tight competition this season the target could well be lower. So 87 points appears to be a reasonable assumption Mugz (you do have all the figures and stats to hand)
    26 from 42 is our minimum target and is. in my opinion, well within our grasp but to be on the safe side I would much rather achieving 90. :grin:
    Finnie
  • Mugz
    172
    RFO now predict that 79 would get 2nd, but I think it will be low 80's.
  • El Poco Loco
    20
    So if RFO are correct, we'd need only 18 pts from 42? :grin:
    I'd be more inclined, like yourself, to aim a bit higher than that - 84 to 87 maybe. :cool:
  • Shammers
    54
    Id like to think 79 would get 2nd place but i doubt that very much We would have to only win 4 of there last 11 games which hand on heart i doubt will be enough. Norwich.Sheff Utd 5 of their last 12.
    Still think this bench mark at the top will be closer and as the previous post said around 85 sounds about right to me.
  • Shammers
    54
    Anyway i will continue with my little list.
    Based on the Championship's History the average needed for promotion/Playoffs
    This could be lower but these numbers are guaranteed

    PLAYOFFS

    74 Points needed
    67 Points Gained 07 Needed
    33 Points Still Available

    AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

    87 Points Needed
    67 Points Gained 20 Points Needed
    33 Points Still Available
  • Shammers
    54
    but i do think the Playoff place for 6th will be alot lower this season.
    the lowest points total for 6th was 68 Points by Leicester City.
    I honestly think the playoffs for us are now in the bag.
    I think once we hit the 70+ mark. mission 2 is complete.
    Then its on to Mission 1 Automatic Promotion

    11 to go

    1.HOME: Sheff Utd
    2.HOME: Millwall
    3.HOME: Sheff Wed
    4.HOME: Wigan
    5.HOME: Aston Villa


    1.AWAY: Bristol City
    2.AWAY : Reading
    3.AWAY: Birmingham
    4.AWAY: Preston
    5.AWAY: Brentford
    6.AWAY: Ipswich
  • Mugz
    172
    Norwich only have to play 1 top 10 team, if they dont finish top 2 from this position then they will have bottled it. I think they are certs for automatic.

    Sheff Utd have 5 top 10 teams to play including a huge game against Leeds.

    Leeds have 4 top 10 teams to play.

    I dont see WBA finishing above Leeds after last nights evidence and a 7pt deficit.
  • Shammers
    54
    I honestly don't think position matters in this division. its all on the day if your not on the ball you lose.
    Total understand where your coming from but teams are fighting both ends of the table now for different reasons and nerves will now set in in all camps.
    Norwich should win today but i wouldn't bet on it :yum:
  • El Poco Loco
    20
    For me, 90 points is still the magic number.
    Every team that achieved 90 pts was automatically promoted.
    The points total, required, could well be less this time around due to the increased competitiveness of this league but I still think we'll need close to the 90, maybe 88 or 89.
    If the other top teams drop some points this weekend, that'd be a great boost.
    I can't believe that I will be shouting/praying for Millwall today. :grin:
    And if the Wendies get the Brucie effect and put one over on the Blades - we'll be laughing. :lol:
  • Drew
    3
    Some interesting fixtures again today, Millwall scrapping for points to avoid relegation & Sheffield Wednesday can still potentially make the playoffs...
    Imagine that Sheff United finish in the playoffs with Sheff Wednesday, it would make a great play off final! :grin:
  • Knottingley White
    6
    They'll be a lot of interesting games for all teams to come. Honestly think the current top 5 are absolutely nailed on for the playoffs, but 6th to even 18th can still fight for that remaining play off place, so they'll all be fighting hard until they feel they've dropped out of the picture, and the six below that (maybe barring Ipswich) will be scrapping for their lives too.
    I reckon 85 points will be enough, and 88 deffo enough.
  • connaughtgreen
    11
    ha ha you and your stats kill me Shammers :nerd:
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