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19 hours ago
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Post by Admin on 19 hours ago
4.15 Elizabethofaragon 2pts e/w 10/1 powers 4 places

3.35 Informateur 1pt 12/1 3 places

I think 12s is just too big for this fella tomorrow, from the Sue Smith yard and having his first run in a beginners chase.

Lets concentrate on the horse first, Informateur seems a consistant horse, two bumper runs resulting in a 2nd place and 13 races over hurdles resulting in three wins, three 2nd places, two 3rd places. Two of the hurdle wins were at tomorrows track. So the horse is consistant.

Now the jockey Danny Cook, he has ridden Informateur fourteen times, resulting in three wins, four 2nd places and two 3rd places.

Lastly the trainer, Sedgefield is her second most succesful course (winner wise) with 100 winners from 692 winners, add another 69 placed horses.
Thats 169 placed horses from 692 which is a tidy 24.4% place strike rate at the yard.

The only downside is and its one from stopping me having 2pts e/w is the trainers form 0/16 over the last 14 days however she did have two 2nds and a 3rd, all three ridden by tomorrows jockey Danny Cook.

After all that, it is definitely worth 1pt e/w at the big price of 12/1

she is a very disappoiting filly and expensive to follow.

email sent, thanks

Hi Owen
wonder can you get in touch with regarding looking at a horse racing website for me.

beatingthebookatyahoodotie.

Thanks

OAKS ?

Be careful only 7 runners

some stable tours reading here

https://bet-master.freeforums.net/thread/6/2020-stable-tours-flat

5.05 Kensington Art 9/1 1pt e/w most bookmakers paying 4 places 1/5 odds

Again another race 1m3f219y where you will need to have stamina and just like Alignak (Dosage index 63) winner earlier on Kensington Art is blessed with an even better dosage of 0.57

His lifetime form reads 8408/345462211464
Now discount his first four races which were way too short, now reads 345462211464
Now discount ground soft to heavy, now reads 3452211
Now discount Turf form, now reads 1

Another plus is the Jockey who rode him to his all weather win is back on tomorrow claiming 3LB and surely its a great e/w bet 4 places.

First time on the allweather could be the time to catch LONDON EYE and jockey R.Moore according to his blog says he will run very well however this gelding has started 7/1 or less in all his races , fav for two of them and at 11/4 we can afford to leave him alone.

if only his first one had of ran like EDRAAK :rage:

Lads
I have started a blog for some friends of mine so I thought I might as well bang some of the stuff up here if anyone wants to read.

Just finished having a look at Newcastle races for Monday and two that interest me are two favs. However if you are quick you can still get
1.00 STONE MASON 11/4 hills and 5.05 ALIGNAK 100/30 Boylesports

1.00 STONEMASON ran in a novice stakes first time out at Weatherby finishing 3rd to two horse who went on to be rated 86 and 79.
Then ran in two maidens and didn't show an awful lot to be honest.
He was then given a rest of two months and entered for a class 5 handicap at Newbury, he finished 7th btn 9L when his sp of 8/1 suggested his stable thought he might have been a little closer.
Then gelded in January 2020, don't know what sort of problems the horse had or caused but he was sold to the APPLEBY yard only four days ago according to the Racingpost.
I want to have a closer look at the Newbury handicap, he finished 7th, the first six horses in the race where rated
76....71....76....76....74....72
Stonemason was rated 68, he was dropped 5LB and gets into Newcasles 0-65 class 6 handicap of 63.
There are seven 4yr olds in the field of 12 runners so could be some improvement from one of the four however I have had 2pts win on STONEMASON 11/4.

Onto the 5.05 Alignak 100/30 the longest race of the day whatever about fitness you will have to have some stamina to get this 1m4f98yds trip, shouldn't be a problem for ALIGNAK as he has a dosage of 0.63.

Alignak's first visit to a race course was in a novice stakes at NEWMARKET where he finished 8 of 9 runners when 16/1 so was clearly out just for the experience.
Next race was another novice stakes where he again started a big price 14/1 only to be beaten 3/4L by HUMANITARIAN 1/3f.

The racing post analysis for the race was as follows

"The first three finished clear in this novice event. The time was 0.68sec quicker than the preceding Class 3 fillies' handicap.

HUMANITARIAN, off since a win at Lingfield six months ago, landed the odds under his penalty. He travelled comfortably in front and although his rider needed to be quite firm with him as the second stuck on, he was always going to win. A King Edward VII Stakes entry, he can improve plenty on the bare form.

Alignak
showed considerably more than on his debut in the autumn, when he'd finished a place behind today's fifth. He stayed on well to make the winner work a bit for his victory."

HUMANITARIANS next race was in the Epsom Derby where he finished 7 of 13 btn 7L behind ANTHONY VAN DYKE.

Next stop Ffos Las for a 1m4f race which he started 4/7fav but could only manage 3rd of 7 btn 11L. However the winner that day was a Alan King trained horse called TRUESHAN whose form over 1m4f on the flat reads 11121 and is currently rated 103.
Plus the time of the race was excellent, Off time: 3:26:26 Winning time: 2m 31.18s (fast by 2.82s).

Next stop Kempton 1m3f where he won easily, he did however have very little to beat, he was rated 85 with 77, 79 rated horses finishing 2nd and 3rd.

Again some analysis from racingpost below

" The first three pulled well clear and the winner bounced back to form with a comfortable success.

ALIGNAK
was an odds-on failure at Ffos Las last time but showed that run to be all wrong, bouncing back to the sort of form which saw him finish second to Humanitarian at Leicester on his reappearance. Travelling comfortably throughout, he bounded clear in the straight. He's related to some smart performers and has the potential to progress in handicap company. "

Conclusion: I do think ALIGNAK has been racing against classier horses than what he meets at Newcastle also being related to SEA THE STARS, I think I read some stats about SEA THE STARS offspring doing really well at Newcastle over 1m2f, I think it was 20/49 showing a profit of €49 so the twenty winners must have been fav or near fav which bodes well for ALIGNAK on Monday
Plus being trained by M.STOUT whose 4yr olds sometimes improve considerably.

2pt win 100/30

some stable tours to read

https://bet-master.freeforums.net/thread/6/2020-stable-tours-flat

So Wonderful

Have backed this filly e/w for 1000

Two blockbuster weekends of action to end the month could be in store for racing under tentative proposals put forward by the BHA as part of resumption planning.

The "best-case scenario" plans, developed by a sub-group of the Flat Pattern Committee, involve the running of several high-profile stakes races in the lead-up to the first Classics of the season, the Qipco 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas, on the first weekend in June.

The release of the potential schedule comes on the same day the BHA's chief medical adviser Dr Jerry Hill and his counterparts from other leading sports met government officials to discuss how action could safely return when receiving appropriate approval from ministers.

Should racing be cleared to resume by the middle of the month, a number of the races deemed most important will take place on the weekend of May 23-24 and May 30-31 and most likely be restricted to domestic runners only.

The first weekend will feature salvaged contests including the Craven Stakes, Nell Gwyn, Brigadier Gerard and Sagaro Stakes, with the likes of the Lockinge, Yorkshire Cup, Dante and Middleton Stakes taking place the following weekend.
Provisional plan for the last two weekends in May

Weekend 1 – May 23-24
Pavilion (6f, 3yo, Group 3)
Nell Gwyn (7f, 3yo, f, Group 3)
Craven (1m, 3yo, c&g, Group 3)
Greenham (7f, 3yo, c&g, Group 3)
Fred Darling (1m, 3yo, f, Group 3)
Brigadier Gerard (1m2f, 4+, Group 3)
Conqueror (1m, 4+, f, Listed)
Pinnacle (1m4f, 4+, f, Group 3)
Sagaro (2m, 4+, Group 3)
Aston Park (1m4f, 4+, Group 3)
Paradise Stakes (1m, 4+, Listed)

Weekend 2 – May 30-31
Lockinge (1m, 4+, Group 1)
Palace House (5½f, 3+, Group 3)
Yorkshire Cup (1m6f, 4+, Group 2)
Dante (1m2f, 3yo, Group 2)
Musidora (1m2f, 3yo, f, Group 3)
Cecil Frail (6f, 3+, f, Listed)
Spring Trophy (7f, 3+, Group 3)
Middleton (1m2f, 4+, f Group 2)
Provisional plan for the first weekend of June

2,000 Guineas (1m, 3yo, c&f, Group 1)
1,000 Guineas (1m, 3yo, f, Group 1)
Coronation Cup (1m4f, 4+, Group 1)
Pretty Polly (1m2f, 3yo, f, Listed)
Newmarket Stakes (1m2f, 3yo, c&g, Listed)
Bronte Cup (1m6f, 4+, f, Group 3)

In an update to stakeholders, the BHA said: "Under our best-case scenario planning, and subject to advice from public health authorities, the aim is to rescue a number of lost events from the early part of the spring and stage them during the second half of May and early June, if possible.

"It is possible that the races may not be staged at their traditional venues and may need to be hosted at alternative racecourses. Again, this is dependent on wider circumstances, the available fixtures and the public health guidance in place at the time.

"It is also likely that racing will be restricted to domestic runners only, initially at least until May 30, in line with a similar approach taken by other international racing jurisdictions.

"We must emphasise that this provisional plan is based on our best-case scenario and may need to be adjusted according to when and under what circumstances racing is safely able to recommence."

50s in powers yesterday morning

wellcome to the world of..................
restricted accounts.

Useless

Lads I am getting this stuff send to me, so can't take any credit.

Clan Des Obeaux
Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, Kempton, December 26
1pt win at 5-1

Clan Des Obeaux
3:05 Kempton

Since 1970 there have been 12 repeat winners of the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and horses that have run well in the race in the past nearly always come back and do the same the following year.

It is clearly something of a specialists' race and having shown massively improved form when winning last year, Clan Des Obeaux looks the value to upset Cyrname and Lostintranslation.

Clan Des Obeaux was impressive 12 months ago and while that wasn't as good a race as this year's is likely to be, he did win with loads in hand, and in an excellent time.

Don't forget he was only a six-year-old last year and it would be strange if a horse trained by Paul Nicholls did not improve as he gets older. He certainly wouldn't be the first to be much better at Kempton than he is at Cheltenham either. Desert Orchid and Wayward Lad are two obvious examples of that.

Nicholls will have been training him for this one race for nearly six months and we will see the best Clan Des Obeaux possible on Boxing Day. I'm not sure that will be the case with his two main rivals.

The track will most definitely suit Cyrname, who is two from two at Kempton over fences, and I don't have any trouble with him over three miles at a track that suits front-runners.

However, he would have been near his peak to beat Altior at Ascot and must have had a hard race that day. Furthermore, I can't believe he will be allowed an easy time of it out front like he was at Ascot because all the other runners will want to test his stamina.

Whether his rivals can go his pace to soften him up is debatable, but he's a 9-4 shot and has never run over three miles before.

Lostintranslation has no worries on the trip front and he looks a superstar in the making, but he won't be able to be ridden like he was in the Betfair Chase and win a King George.

It has always been hard to come from off the pace to win this race given the configuration of the track and I just wonder whether he'll find himself with too much ground to make up in the last half-mile.

He might pull it off, but I'm not sure Bristol De Mai was at his best in the Betfair Chase last time, and beating the two Nicholls horses around this track is going to be altogether much harder. Lostintranslation might be up to it but Best Mate couldn't do it before he went on to win three Gold Cups and I'm not sure Colin Tizzard's seven-year-old will be ideally suited by the nature of the King George at this stage of his career.

Bar the big three, it really is difficult to find a viable alternative, especially as it is hard to see Altior running after his defeat last time.

Footpad was a brilliant novice and might well improve for the step up to three miles, so I suppose it's possible that he comes into it after his excellent return when upped to 2m6f at Thurles last time. However, he still looks to have at least a stone to find and is not a big enough price in any case.

The one fly in the ointment would be if Min was to turn up because on his day he is top class – and he's been crying out for a step up to three miles. The problem is he's due to run in the John Durkan on Sunday and the chances of him lining up on Boxing Day at Kempton look slim.

thanks very much.

Lads its a €1 lucky 15 and the bookmakes says it 55p deducted in all

4 singles
6 doubles
4 trebles
1 acca

Surely the 55 deduction is only in the race were the 55p deduction